By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

More often that not in Georgia, a candidate who finishes first, but short of the needed majority, in a first-round primary goes on to clinch nomination in the ensuing runoff election. That history would seem to give a slight edge in Tuesday’s Democratic Senate runoff to Vernon Jones, the top official in suburban Atlanta’s DeKalb County: He led former state Rep. Jim Martin by 40 percent to 34 percent at the top of the five-candidate July 15 primary field.

“Seventy percent of the time, the candidate who leads does get the nomination,” University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III noted.

But some controversies and criticisms that have dogged Jones over the course of his public career raise uncertainty about whether this Senate contest will be true to form.

The only thing that is certain is that whichever of the two Democratic candidates emerges the victor, he will immediately become the underdog in a general election campaign in which first-term Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is heavily favored.

Democrats insist they will put up a serious challenge against Chambliss, a former House member who earned their lasting animosity as the result of his successful 2002 campaign. He won that contest by 53 percent to 46 percent after running TV ad attacks against Democratic Sen. Max Cleland, which suggested the incumbent — who overcame devastating injuries while serving in the Vietnam War — was weak on defense and homeland security.

But the Democrats, to have a chance to upset Chambliss, must reverse a strong GOP trend in Georgia, a longtime Southern Democratic stronghold where Republicans have won three consecutive presidential contests and currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s office, seven of the 13 U.S. House seats in majorities in both state legislative chambers. CQ rates the general election contest as Republican Favored.

Jones, as a Democratic primary contender, benefits from a strong base among his fellow African-Americans who make up more than a quarter of the state’s population. He performed strongly in the July 15 vote in the state’s major urban counties — including those surrounding Atlanta, Augusta, Savannah, Macon and others — many of which have high concentrations of black residents.

But Bullock noted that voters who know Jones best did not hand him an overwhelming victory. Jones received 43 percent of the primary vote in his DeKalb County base, while Martin received 33 percent.

Jones has been a controversial figure, in part because of his past personal conduct. He faced an allegation of rape in 2004, but the investigation was dropped the following year at the accuser’s request. Jones maintains he had a consensual three-way encounter with the accuser and another woman, and insists the rape allegation was false.

But Jones also has endured some criticism for political activities as DeKalb County’s chief executive officer. The Atlanta Journal Consistution’s editorial page editor Cynthia Tucker, who also is African-American, portrayed Jones as practicing “divisive racial politics.”

Martin and other detractors also have questioned Jones’ loyalty to the Democratic Party, noting Jones’ public statement that he voted for George W. Bush in both of his contests as the Republican presidential nominee. Jones has positioned himself as a conservative Democrat who touts his stands for fiscal responsibility, smaller government and less dependence on foreign oil.

Jones has hit back by noting that Martin voted for John Edwards for the Democratic nomination even though Edwards dropped out of the contest before Georgia’s Feb. 5 presidential primary. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama won the state’s “Super Tuesday” contest by 66 percent to 31 percent over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton .

Martin, who served as head of the state Department of Human Resources and was the Democrats’ nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006, is running as an “independent voice for Georgia” and has been highly critical of the Bush administration. He says he believes in providing accessible and affordable health care to Americans, lowering middle-class taxes and bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq.