By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Democrat

Electoral Votes: 55

The evolution of California into a reliably Democratic-leaning state over just the past two decades has turned it into the foundation of the party’s White House hopes every four years. And what a foundation it provides. By far the nation’s most populous state, with more than 36 million residents, California offers more than one-fifth of the total needed to win the White House.

The shift from the days when California sent Republicans Richard M. Nixon and Ronald Reagan to the White House has been drastic. George W. Bush lost the state by 12 percentage points in 2000 and 10 points in 2004. Democrats hold both Senate seats, have a 34-19 edge in House seats and have big majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The vast state is highly diverse in ethnicity, income levels, industries, political ideology and sexual orientation, all advantageous to Democrats. There still are many conservative voters, of course, with heavy concentrations in Southern California outside Los Angeles and in rural areas, but they no longer hold sway the way they used to.

Yet for a while this year, Republicans said John McCain — with his willingness to disagree with many members of his party on issues such as assimilating illegal immigrants, increasing regulation of campaign fundraising and addressing global climate change — might actually have a shot at the huge bloc of 55 electoral votes that is essential to the Democratic nominee’s strategic plans.

“McCain has always had an uphill fight in California, but he had a much greater opportunity here than Republicans have had in many years,” said Republican strategist Dan Schnur, who served as McCain’s communications director in 2000.

But Schnur’s use of past tense was intentional. State political observers across a wide spectrum view McCain’s call for increased offshore oil drilling as killing any prospects he had of seriously competing in California, where that idea has been highly unpopular since a disastrous oil spill off Santa Barbara in 1969. It even drew a rebuke from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger , the popular centrist Republican and former movie star who has endorsed McCain for president.

Given the high cost of campaigning in a state with more than 36 million residents and several expensive media markets, Schnur argues McCain would be smart to “fold a losing hand” and instead deploy his resources in the hopes of winning swing states elsewhere.

The broad economy and specific concerns about falling home prices, foreclosures and high gasoline prices are likely to be the biggest issues on California voters’ minds this November. Those will also loom large in the few competitive House elections in a year when there are no other major statewide races.

An “incumbent protection” gerrymander in the redistricting for this decade left little room for partisan challenges, and so only two of the state’s 53 House contests this year are at all competitive. They are in the same two typically Republican-leaning districts where, in 2006, ethics controversies hanging over Republican incumbents allowed Democrats to make inroads.

One is in a district, stretching from exurbs east of San Francisco Bay to more conservative territory in the Central Valley, where Democrat Jerry McNerney ousted Republican Richard W. Pombo. Republicans have hope in former state Rep. Dean Andal, but McNerney prepared early for an expected tough fight and had a huge financial advantage midyear. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Democratic.

The other — in a rural swath of the state northeast of Sacramento that gave 61 percent to Bush in 2004 — is one in which the Republicans’ chances improved when incumbent John T. Doolittle decided to retire after nine terms. He was still dogged by the questions about his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff that almost cost him the 2006 election. Former Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, who finished just 3 points behind two years ago, is the Democratic nominee again, but the GOP appears on a stronger footing with state Sen. Tom McClintock, a well-known conservative. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Republican.