By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored

Electoral Votes: 9

In an election year when Democrats are expected to make nationwide gains in the Senate, two-term incumbent Mary L. Landrieu of conservative-leaning Louisiana stands out as the only Democrat among the dozen running for re-election who faces a remotely competitive race.

The state’s Senate contest comes against the backdrop of a presidential race in which John McCain is strongly favored over Barack Obama and extend the Republicans’ presidential winning streak in the state to three. The state’s Republican trend in presidential politics, which took root during the 1960s as in much of the South, was broken by Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. But both were Southerners.

A pro-Obama surge among the state’s large African-American population and among well-educated white voters in and near New Orleans might force McCain to spend some money and energy in Louisiana. But it will be very difficult for Obama to win the state — especially in the wake of the widespread displacement of New Orleans’ black-majority population caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

“The combined effects of South Louisiana Cajun Catholics trending more Republican because of social issues — these Southern white voters kept Louisiana a swing state longer than most Deep South states — and the disproportionate exodus of Democratic-voting urban African-Americans in New Orleans have made Louisiana increasingly Republican,” Wayne Parent, a political scientist at Louisiana State University, wrote in a July e-mail message

No Democratic senator up for re-election this year faces a bigger quandary over how closely to associate with Obama than Landrieu. Republicans are rallying behind the candidacy of Landrieu’s challenger, state Treasurer John Kennedy, a recent convert to their party. Neither Landrieu or Kennedy faces opposition in the state Sept. 6 primaries.

Kennedy is hoping to replicate the success of Republican Bobby Jindal , a former U.S. House member who was easily elected governor of Louisiana last fall. Kennedy’s campaign is painting Landrieu as too liberal for Louisiana and portraying himself as a political “outsider.”

Still, Parent noted that “national trends toward Democrats are having an effect here, as well.” He pointed to the May 3 special election victory by Democrat Don Cazayoux in the Baton Rouge-based House district vacated by 11-term Republican Rep. Richard H. Baker .

Cazayoux faces a tough fight this fall in his bid for a full term. Republicans contend that they have a better candidate in state Sen. Bill Cassidy. Democrats also must dissuade voters, especially those in the district’s African-American constituency, from backing the independent candidacy of Michael Jackson, a black state legislator who lost the Democratic special election nomination to Cazayoux.

Meanwhile, Republicans will be playing defense in the northwestern Louisiana district, where the likely Democratic nominee is Paul Carmouche, the district attorney in and around Shreveport for three decades. There are three candidates in the Republican primary.

In southwestern Louisiana, Republican Rep. Charles W. Boustany Jr. can’t overlook Democratic state Sen. Donald Cravins Jr., the namesake son of a former state senator who was one of the Democrats Boustany outpolled to win the seat in 2004. Until that year, southwestern Louisiana had a long history of backing conservative Democrats for Congress.

The Democratic primary in the district that takes in most of New Orleans will determine the fate of nine-term Rep. William J. Jefferson , who is awaiting trial on federal corruption charges. He faces six opponents in the primary, and the nomination almost certainly will be decided in an October 4 runoff.