By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican

Electoral Votes: 6

Republicans have taken note of Barack Obama ’s potential to strongly boost turnout among African-Americans, who make up more than a third of Mississippi’s population, and other recent indicators of a Democratic Party rebound in a strongly conservative Southern state. But GOP strategists remain confident, and not without good reason, that John McCain will prevail to become the eighth consecutive Republican presidential nominee to carry Mississippi.

“If everything falls right and everything happens right, [Obama] definitely could win,” said Marty Wiseman, director of Mississippi State University’s John C. Stennis Institute of Government. But Wiseman said it’s a long shot.

Even with a surge of black voters, Wiseman estimated, Obama would need support from 20 percent to 25 percent of the state’s white voters to win in November. That is no easy chore in a state that has long exhibited partisan voting patterns in presidential contests that break along racial lines, with most whites going Republican and the vast majority of blacks voting Democratic.

Mississippi remains a conservative state, and McCain’s military background and support for the Iraq War will continue to win him support among the many voters who lean to the right. Even his ties to Bush won’t be as big a problem as in many other states, as the president’s approval ratings haven’t slipped as far in Mississippi as they have nationally.

There is considerable, but not absolute, Republican strength elsewhere in the state. GOP stalwart Haley Barbour , the current two-term governor, is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee. And GOP Sen. Thad Cochran is a shoo-in to win a sixth term in November. But Republican gains have not been as pervasive down-ballot. Democrat Travis W. Childers, a longtime local official and nursing-home owner, won the contest to replace Republican Roger Wicker , who was appointed to the Senate after representing the district for 13 years. Childers’ win gave Democrats a 3-to-1 edge in the state’s House seats, and he appears to have at least a slight advantage for his re-election rematch with Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, whom he defeated 54 percent to 46 percent in the special election. Democrats also hold majorities in both state legislative chambers.

The House special election could spell trouble for Wicker as he runs as the short-term incumbent in the state’s other Senate race, the special election to fill out the remaining four years in the term Republican Trent Lott vacated to embark on a lobbying career. Democrats recruited the candidate they regarded as their best possible challenger for the seat, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.

Wicker entered the Senate well known only in a quarter of Mississippi and has had to work to expand his name recognition across the state. Musgrove entered the race with a statewide profile, though he did lose to Barbour when he sought re-election in 2003 and has been forced to explain past campaign contributions he received from businessmen who have been embroiled in a state political scandal.

The state’s one open-seat House race is in a Republican stronghold that runs from the east-central to southwestern portions of the state. Gregg Harper, a former county GOP chairman, is strongly favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Charles W. “Chip” Pickering Jr.