CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 3, 2008 – 4:27 p.m.
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
By Bob Benenson, CQ Politics Editor
With leaders of both parties using all of their persuasive powers, the revised version of the financial industry assistance or “bailout” measure that passed by 263-171 Friday afternoon received 58 more votes than the original version that failed by 205-228. But the bipartisan leadership made only incremental gains among incumbents who – according to CQ Politics’ ratings — are entering the final month of highly competitive general election contests.
While several of these incumbents did switch from “no” to “yes” between Monday’s and Friday’s votes, most of them again voted again kept their distance from an expensive plan that has stirred controversy and a backlash among many voters.
Of the 20 Republicans whose re-election races are rated by CQ Politics as highly competitive — No Clear Favorite, Leans Democratic or Leans Republican — 13 of them voted no on Friday while seven voted yes. That was four more aye votes than on Monday, when this group went 17-3 against the original bill. Vern Buchanan of Florida’s 13th District, John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr. of New York’s 29th District, Joe Knollenberg of Michigan’s 9th District and Jean Schmidt of Ohio’s 2nd District switched in favor of the revised bill.
Among the 21 Democratic incumbents whose races are in highly competitive categories, the leadership picked up three votes. On Friday, there were 12 votes against and 9 votes in favor. This compared to the 15-6 vote against the first version of the bill on Monday. The switchers among the most heavily challenged Democratic incumbents were Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona’s 8th District, Harry E. Mitchell of Arizona’s 5th District and John Yarmuth of Kentucky’s 3rd District.
The two Arizona members who switched, both of whom are freshmen, may have obtained some political cover from the controversy of the measure when fellow Arizonan Sen. John McCain joined Sen. Barack Obama , the Democratic presidential nominee in voting for the bill as it passed the Senate Wednesday by 74-25. In addition, seven-term Republican Rep. John Shadegg , who faces a long-shot Democratic challenge in Arizona’s 3rd District, joined Giffords and Mitchell in voted in favor of Friday’s bill after voting no on Monday. In a press release sent out shortly after the vote, Shadegg said, “My choice was between voting for this bill or doing nothing at all. I chose to vote to protect Arizona jobs and America’s economy.”
Nonetheless, Giffords’ Republican challenger, state Sen. Tim Bee, wasted no time testing whether the bailout bill’s unpopularity might be harmful to the incumbent’s re-election chances. Alleging that unnecessary federal spending had been added to the original bill as an inducement to get lawmakers to change their votes to yes, Bee said in a release, “This bill should be about protecting our taxpayer, stabilizing our markets and strengthening our economy. It should not be about how much more pork-barrel spending you can get away with. Southern Arizonans deserve someone that will stand up for them and do the right things.”
Despite the hot debate and rancor over the legislation, the GOP leadership made considerable gains among their 19 incumbents whose are more strongly favored for re-election but are rated by CQ Politics as facing competitive challenges. On Monday, only 2 of the 19, or 11 percent, favored the original bill. On Friday, there was a much closer split, as 8 of the incumbents in these Republican Favored races, or 42 percent, said aye.
Along with Arizona’s Shadegg, the no-to-yes Republicans in this category are Judy Biggert of Illinois’ 13th District, Charles Boustany Jr. of Louisiana’s 7th District, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania’s 15th District, Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania’s 6th District and Lee Terry of Nebraska’s 2nd District.
The 13 Democratic incumbents engaged in somewhat competitive races rated Democrat Favored broke with their other electorally challenged colleagues on Monday by giving strong support for the defeated measure, backing it by nine votes to four. Even with this group, the leaders gained a vote to bump up to 10-3, with Andre Carson of Indiana’s 7th District making the switch.
As on Monday, the Friday vote showed a striking difference between members who are seeking re-election and face competitive races and those who are not seeking re-election in districts where there are competitive races to succeed them.
Also as on Monday, the bailout bill received support from all three Democrats from competitive districts who voluntarily are not returning to the House for the 111th Congress next year. And of the much larger group of 23 departing Republicans from competitive districts, 19 voted yes and four voted no. That was two more yes votes than for Monday’s bill, provided by Jim Ramstad of Minnesota’s 3rd District, who had voted no on Monday, and Jerry Weller of Illinois’ 11th District, the only member of the House who did not vote on Monday’s legislation.
Ramstad was swayed when the revised package included a bill, long pursued by Ramstad and Democratic Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy of Rhode Island’s 1st District, to require insurers to provide coverage for mental illnesses the same way that they do for physical ailments.
The following is a chart that breaks down the votes cast on the two versions of the financial industry bailout bill, by House members whose districts have races rated by CQ Politics as highly competitive (No Clear Favorite, Leans Republican or Leans Democratic) or somewhat competitive (Democrat Favored or Republican). After each member’s name, the vote on Monday’s version of the bill is shown first, with the vote on Friday’s version following the slash (/). Members who switched from voting no on Monday’s bill to voting yes on Friday are displayed in italics.
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
Each member is listed by party, and categorized according to CQ Politics’ current rating for the general election contest in his or her district.
The roundup begins with the votes cast by members who are seeking re-election this year. It is followed by a second and smaller grouping of members who are not seeking re-election, because they are retiring, are seeking other office or were defeated in a primary.
Please note that since Monday’s vote, the ratings on two Michigan Republican members’ races, Tim Walberg of the 7th District and Knollenberg of the 9th District, were changed to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. But for the purposes of this analysis, both were kept in the Leans Republican category in order to allow for a one-to-one comparison with Monday’s vote.
Members Seeking Re-Election
REPUBLICANS
Leans Democratic
Total: 1
Monday — No: 1 (100 percent)
Friday — No: 1 (100 percent)
- Don Young , Alaska at-large: No /No
No Clear Favorite
Total: 4
Monday — Yes: 2 (50 percent) No: 2 (50 percent)
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
Friday — Yes: 2 (50 percent) No: 2 (50 percent)
- Robin Hayes , North Carolina 8: No /No
- Jon Porter , Nevada 3: Yes /Yes
- Dave Reichert , Washington 8: No /No
- Christopher Shays , Connecticut 4: Yes /Yes
Leans Republican
Total: 15
Monday — Yes: 1 (7 percent) No: 14 (93 percent)
Friday — Yes: 5 (33%) No: 10 (67%)
- Vern Buchanan , Florida 13: No /Yes
- Shelley Moore Capito , West Virginia 2: No /No
- Steve Chabot , Ohio 1: No /No
- Mario Diaz-Balart , Florida 21: No /No
- Phil English , Pennsylvania 3: No /No
- Tom Feeney , Florida 24: No /No
- Sam Graves , Missouri 6: No /No
- Dean Heller , Nevada 2: No /No
- Ric Keller , Florida 8: No /No
- John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr. , New York 29: No /Yes
- Joe Knollenberg , Michigan 9: No /Yes
- Mark Steven Kirk , Illinois 10: Yes /Yes
- Marilyn Musgrave , Colorado 4: No /No
- Jean Schmidt , Ohio 2: No /Yes
- Tim Walberg , Michigan 7: No /No
Republican Favored
Total: 19
Monday — Yes: 2 (11 percent) No: 17 (89 percent)
Friday — Yes: 8 (42%) No: 11 (58%)
- Michele Bachmann , Minnesota 6: No /No
- Judy Biggert , Illinois 13: No /Yes
- Charles Boustany Jr. , Louisiana 7: No /Yes
- John Culberson , Texas 7: No /No
- Charlie Dent , Pennsylvania 15: No /Yes
- Lincoln Diaz-Balart , Florida 25: No /No
- Thelma Drake , Virginia 2: No /No
- Scott Garrett , New Jersey 5: No /No
- Jim Gerlach , Pennsylvania 6: No /Yes
- Virgil H. Goode Jr. , Virginia 5: No /No
- John Kline , Minnesota 2: Yes /Yes
- Steven C. LaTourette , Ohio 14: No /No
- Michael McCaul , Texas 10: No /No
- Tim Murphy , Pennsylvania 18: No /No
- Peter Roskam , Illinois 6: No /No
- Bill Sali , Idaho 1: No /No
- John Shadegg , Arizona 3: No /Yes
- Lee Terry , Nebraska 2: No /Yes
- Frank R. Wolf , Virginia 10: Yes /Yes
DEMOCRATS
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
No Clear Favorite
Total: 4
Monday — Yes: 1 (25 percent) No: 3 (75 percent)
Friday — Yes: 1 (25 percent) No: 3 (75 percent)
- Nancy Boyda , Kansas 2: No /No
- Don Cazayoux , Louisiana 6: No /No
- Nick Lampson , Texas 22: No /No
- Tim Mahoney , Florida 16: Yes /Yes
Leans Democratic
Total: 17
Monday — Yes: 5 (29 percent) No: 12 (71 percent)
Friday — Yes: 8 (47 percent) No: 9 (53 percent)
- Jason Altmire , Pennsylvania 4: No /No
- Christopher Carney , Pennsylvania 10: No /No
- Travis W. Childers , Mississippi 1: No /No
- Bill Foster , Illinois 14: Yes /Yes
- Gabrielle Giffords , Arizona 8: No /Yes
- Kirsten Gillibrand , New York 20: No /No
- Baron P. Hill , Indiana 9: No /No
- Steve Kagen , Wisconsin 8: No /No
- Paul E. Kanjorski , Pennsylvania 11: Yes /Yes
- Jerry McNerney , California 11: Yes /Yes
- Jim Marshall , Georgia 8: Yes /Yes
- Harry E. Mitchell , Arizona 5: No /Yes
- Christopher S. Murphy , Connecticut 5: Yes /Yes
- Ciro D. Rodriguez , Texas 23: No /No
- Carol Shea-Porter , New Hampshire 1: No /No
- Tim Walz , Minnesota 1: No /No
- John Yarmuth , Kentucky 3: No /Yes
Democrat Favored
Total: 13
Monday — Yes: 9 (69 percent) No: 4 (31 percent)
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
Friday — Yes: 10 (77 percent) No: 3 (23 percent)
- Michael Arcuri , New York 24: Yes /Yes
- John Barrow , Georgia 12: No /No
- Melissa Bean , Illinois 8: Yes /Yes
- Andre Carson , Indiana 7: No /Yes
- Joe Courtney , Connecticut 2: No /No
- Joe Donnelly , Indiana 2: Yes /Yes
- Brad Ellsworth , Indiana 8: Yes /Yes
- John Hall , New York 19: Yes /Yes
- Paul W. Hodes , New Hampshire 2: No /No
- Ron Klein , Florida 22: Yes /Yes
- Dennis Moore , Kansas 3: Yes /Yes
- Patrick J. Murphy , Pennsylvania 8: Yes /Yes
- Zack Space , Ohio 18: Yes /Yes
Members Not Seeking Re-Election
(NOTE: Ratings are for races to succeed departing members. Members are retiring unless otherwise noted.)
REPUBLICANS
Democrat Favored
Total: 1
Monday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
Friday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
- Vito J. Fossella , New York 13: Yes /Ye
Leans Democratic
Total: 4
Monday — Yes: 2 (50 percent) No: 1 (25 percent) Did Not Vote: 1 (25 percent)
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
Friday — Yes: 3 (75 percent) No: 1 (25 percent)
- Thomas M. Davis III , Virginia 11: Yes /Yes
- Rick Renzi , Arizona 1: No /No
- James T. Walsh , New York 25: Yes /Yes
- Jerry Weller , Illinois 11: Did Not Vote /Yes
No Clear Favorite
Total: 6
Monday — Yes: 5 (83 percent) No: 1 (17 percent)
Friday — Yes: 6 (100 percent)
- Mike Ferguson , New Jersey 7: Yes /Yes
- Deborah Pryce , Ohio 15: Yes /Yes
- Jim Ramstad , Minnesota 3: No/Yes
- Ralph Regula , Ohio 16: Yes /Yes
- H. James Saxton , New Jersey 3: Yes /Yes
- Heather A. Wilson , New Mexico 1 (lost Senate primary): Yes /Yes
Leans Republican
Total: 7
Monday — Yes: 4 (57 percent) No: 3 (43 percent)
Friday — Yes: 4 (57 percent) No: 3 (43 percent)
- Barbara Cubin , Wyoming at-large: Yes /Yes
- John T. Doolittle , California 4: No /No
- Terry Everett , Alabama 2: Yes /Yes
- Kenny Hulshof , Missouri 9 (running for governor): No /No
- Jim McCrery , Louisiana 4: Yes /Yes
- Steve Pearce , New Mexico 2 (running for Senate): No /No
- Thomas M. Reynolds , New York 26: Yes /Yes
Republican Favored
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
Total: 5
Monday — Yes: 5 (100 percent)
Friday — Yes: 5 (100 percent)
- Wayne T. Gilchrest , Maryland 1 (defeated in primary): Yes /Yes
- David L. Hobson , Ohio 7: Yes /Yes
- Ray LaHood , Illinois 18: Yes /Yes
- Ron Lewis , Kentucky 2: Yes /Yes
- Dave Weldon , Florida 15: Yes /Yes
DEMOCRATS
No Clear Favorite
Total: 1
Monday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
Friday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
- Robert E. “Bud” Cramer , Alabama 5: Yes /Yes
Leans Democratic
Total: 1
Monday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
Some Vulnerable Incumbents Converted to Bailout Bill, Most Stayed Wary
Friday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
- Darlene Hooley , Oregon 5: Yes /Yes
Democrat Favored
Total: 1
Monday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
Friday — Yes: 1 (100 percent)
- Tom Allen , Maine 1 (running for Senate): Yes /Yes
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