CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 8, 2008 – 5:23 p.m.
Schumer Says Voters’ Economic Worries May Swell Dems’ Senate Ranks
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer , the Democrats’ leading Senate campaign strategist, said Wednesday there has been a “dramatic shift in our direction” less than four weeks before the Nov. 4 election — with the majority party’s chances for big gains enhanced by what he described as palpable voter concern about the economy, at a time of turmoil in the nation’s and world’s financial markets.
Schumer, the two-term senator who is in his second election cycle as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), suggested to reporters at a briefing that Democrats were well-positioned to expand their ranks to well beyond the 51 seats they operationally control in the current 110th Congress. He said Democrats stood to benefit from a contrast of “economic change vs. special interest status quo.”
“The wind is more strongly at our back than ever before,” Schumer said.
Continuing his practice from past media appearances, Schumer declined to make a specific prediction of seat gains. But his race-by-race rundown suggests that he thinks Democrats will emerge from the Nov. 4 election with close to 60 seats.
That is the number that would give Democrats the three-fifths majority they need to end Republican filibusters on legislation if Senate votes were to break exactly along party lines (which often is not the case). Democratic officials have often cited the 60-seat threshold in public statements and fundraising appeals to party supporters.
Democrats appear to have a virtual lock on pickups of two Senate seats, currently held by retiring Republicans John W. Warner of Virginia and Pete V. Domenici of New Mexico. In a race between two former governors of Virginia, Democrat Mark Warner has built an overwhelming lead in polls over Republican James S. Gilmore III. In the race between two current House incumbents in New Mexico, Democrat Tom Udall has forged a solid advantage over Republican Steve Pearce . CQ Politics currently rates both races as Democrat Favored.
Schumer said Democrats had decided advantages in three other states: Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska. CQ Politics rates these races Leans Democratic.
In the one open-seat race in this group, Colorado Democratic Rep. Mark Udall is opposed by Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer. They are running to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard .
The other two are the races currently rated by CQ Politics as the Democrats’ most threatening challenges to Republican incumbents. In New Hampshire, Republican Sen. John E. Sununu is facing Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of their close race in 2002, which pre-dated a recent Democratic trend in the state. In Alaska, Republican Sen. Ted Stevens is being vigorously challenged by Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, even as the long-serving incumbent is standing trial in Washington, D.C., on charges that he knowingly failed to report sizable gifts on his Senate financial disclosure forms.
Schumer also pointed to improved Democratic prospects in North Carolina, where Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan has pulled ahead of Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in some recent surveys, and in Oregon, where Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley is running about even with Republican Sen. Gordon H. Smith in polls. Hagan has been aided by the strong organization that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has built for his upset bid in North Carolina, a state that has gone Republican for president in every election from 1980 on. Obama is expected to defeat Republican rival John McCain in Oregon, a state that conversely has gone Democratic in each of the past five presidential contests.
CQ Politics rates the North Carolina race as No Clear Favorite and the Oregon contest as Leans Republican, though the latter contest is shading more to the tossup category.
Schumer contended that the two parties “are even” in Minnesota — where Republican Sen. Norm Coleman is opposed by Democrat Al Franken, a well-known entertainer, and independent Dean Barkley, who briefly served as an appointed senator at the end of 2002 — and in the Mississippi Senate special election, in which appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker is up against Democratic former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. In one other race that has so far not been as competitive as earlier expected, Schumer said that Maine Democratic Rep. Tom Allen has narrowed the polling advantage held by Republican Sen. Susan Collins . CQ Politics rates the Mississippi race as No Clear Favorite and the contests in Maine and Minnesota as Leans Republican.
Competitive races were expected to develop in nearly all of those 10 states. But Schumer said that the playing field of highly competitive races has expanded in recent weeks to include two more states: Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is seeking a fifth term, and Georgia, where Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is facing an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Jim Martin, a former state representative and the losing Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006.
Schumer Says Voters’ Economic Worries May Swell Dems’ Senate Ranks
Schumer said that the DSCC today would air its first television ad in Kentucky, where McConnell is opposed by Democrat Bruce Lunsford, the wealthy founder of a chain of nursing homes.
The DSCC hasn’t aired any independent expenditure ads in Georgia, though it did contribute $39,900 to Martin’s campaign in early August, the maximum amount that a Senate campaign committee can give directly to a candidate.
CQ Politics’ current ratings are Leans Republican in Kentucky and Republican Favored in Georgia.
The competitive Senate races are almost exclusively in states defended by Republicans. Of the 12 Senate seats on the Nov. 4 ballot that are under Democratic control, the only one in which the DSCC is spending money is in Louisiana, where Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu is opposed by Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy. This is the only Democratic-defended seat that CQ Politics considers highly competitive, with a rating of Leans Democratic.
Officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the DSCC’s partisan counterpart, have acknowledged that their candidates are facing a very difficult political environment. But they contend that some races in which Schumer claims an advantage are actually tossups, and that Republicans are favored to win some other races that Democrats think are very close.
“Polls show that most of the competitive Senate races are currently in dead heats. That’s encouraging news for us going into Election Day since we have much stronger candidates,” said NRSC communications director Rebecca Fisher. “Democrats should have learned from past experiences that it’s dangerous to predict victory this far out.”




Comments
As a life-long liberal democrat, I should be preparing to celebrate the predicted decimation of the Republican Party. I cant help but wonder, however, if we are getting ready to throw the economically moderate conservative babies out with the social and ideologically polluted water. Can we afford to lose John Sununu, Gordan Smith, James Inhofe, Liz Dole, and Susan Collins? . Pinheads and Dittoheads alike are already rubbing their slimey hands and preparing to remake the Republican Party in their own image. Is this what we want?
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