CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 17, 2008 – 12:09 a.m.
African-American Turnout for Obama Could Pad Democratic Majorities in Congress
By Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
National Democratic operatives pulled out of Alabama’s 3rd District shortly before Election Day in 2002, conceding the newly redrawn open seat to the GOP so they could reallocate resources to districts in other parts of the country where they thought they had a better shot of winning.
The decision was made in part based on polling that showed Democratic nominee Joe Turnham underperforming among the district’s African Americans — who make up about 30 percent of the voting-age population — according to Rep. Artur Davis , the state’s only black representative in Congress.
The Democratic Party got a bit of a shock on Election Day that year: Turnham did better than expected with black voters and lost to current Rep. Mike D. Rogers by less than 4,000 votes out of more than 180,000 cast in a race that also included a libertarian candidate, leaving Democrats to wonder whether they might have picked up that seat if only they had kept their resources in place.
How times have changed.
This year’s 3rd District Democratic candidate, Joshua Segall, has been competitive in the money race, and Davis said he has seen polling that shows Segall trailing by single digits. CQ Politics is changing the rating of the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.
So it may be that the GOP is in for a surprise in the east-central 3rd District and in as many as a dozen other Republican-held House and Senate seats if Barack Obama draws black voters to the polls in record numbers.
“Even in states where Obama’s not pushing, there will be a lot of African Americans who want to tell their children and grandchildren that they voted for the first black president,” said David Bositis, a voting rights expert at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
Earlier this year, Bositis published a list of 15 competitive House races in districts where African Americans account for 10 percent or more of the voting-age population and 5 competitive Senate races where African Americans make up more than 5 percent of the voting-age population. Because African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, Republicans are at risk of losing seats to a spike in black turnout. Democrats are not.
Vulnerable Republicans
Two Republican House members, Reps. Robin Hayes in North Carolina’s Charlotte-to-Fayetteville 8th District and Steve Chabot in Ohio’s Cincinnati-based 1st District, narrowly won re-election in 2006 in districts where the black voting-age population is 25 percent. Both are locked in battles rated “No Clear Favorite” by CQ Politics this year.
The Hayes campaign is worried about the possibility of an Obama-based surge among black voters in the district, according to a North Carolina Republican strategist.
“I think the problem that he has is a combination of the African American vote and new voters who have moved into North Carolina that don’t have the family ties and roots into that district,” the strategist said. “His race is very much one that I would not be surprised if he lost.”
Hayes is facing a rematch against Larry Kissell, a social studies teacher who lost by just 329 votes in 2006 despite getting little help from the national party.
African-American Turnout for Obama Could Pad Democratic Majorities in Congress
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole is facing a similar dynamic in her first bid for re-election to the seat she won in 2002. Polls show her trailing Democrat Kay Hagan in a state that has become highly competitive at the national level and is rated “No Clear Favorite” by CQ Politics. One in five voting-age North Carolinians are black, according to Bositis’ figures.
A recent poll conducted by the North Carolina-based Democratic firm Public Policy Polling pegged Obama’s support among white voters at 38 percent, which would be a significant gain over 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry , who won 27 percent of the white vote in the state according to exit polls.
Bositis also believes Obama will attract white voters to the Democratic Party.
“When all is said and done, he’s very likely to be the Democratic candidate who’s done the best among white voters in years,” Bositis said.
The confluence of a shift toward Democrats among white voters and a spike in black turnout could significantly pad Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.
In Virginia’s Hampton Roads-based 2nd District, where African Americans constitute 20 percent of the voting-age population, Rep. Thelma Drake won re-election in 2006 with just 51.3 percent of the vote. This year, she faces Democrat Glenn Nye, who has worked for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. The district gave 58 percent of its votes to President Bush in 2004. CQ Politics recently changed the race rating to a competitive Leans Republican.
The state’s 5th District, which has a black voting-age population of 23 percent and includes the Democratic haven surrounding the University of Virginia, also presents an opportunity to Democrats.
Veteran GOP Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. , who has been elected as a Democrat, an independent and a Republican over the course of his career, won with 59.1 percent in 2006 -- his smallest share of the vote in six House elections.
Goode and his opponent, Democrat Tom Perriello, had each raised more than $1.3 million for the race through the end of September, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. CQ Politics rates the race Republican Favored.
The Virginia Senate seat left open by the impending retirement of Republican John Warner is one of four Republican-held Senate seats where the black voting-age population is more than 5 percent. Former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner’s lead is so prohibitive over former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore that turnout numbers among various demographic groups in that race will only interest political statisticians. CQ Politics recently changed the rating@] of this race to Safe Democratic.
In addition to Virginia and North Carolina, Senate races for Republican-held seats in Mississippi, Kentucky and Georgia could be influenced by heavy African American turnout. Mississippi, where Roger Wicker will try to retain the Senate seat to which he was appointed last year, has a black voting-age population of 33 percent, according to Bositis. Kentucky, where Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in a surprisingly close re-election race, has a black voting-age population of 7 percent.
Since Bositis published his list, Georgia’s Senate race has become more competitive, and increased black turnout could threaten Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss ’ hold on the seat.
Louisiana’s 4th District may become an interesting test case for Democrats’ ability to encourage African Americans to go to the polls after the presidential election and without Obama at the top of the ticket. Because of Louisiana’s runoff election system, the race in that district — where the black voting-age population is 30.5 percent — will not be decided until December. CQ rates it Leans Republican.
African-American Turnout for Obama Could Pad Democratic Majorities in Congress
A pair of GOP-held House districts farther north, Maryland’s 1st and Connecticut’s 4th, have black voting-age populations of 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively. The Connecticut seat, which Rep. Christopher Shays won with 51 percent of the vote in 2006, is rated No Clear Favorite by CQ Politics, and the Maryland seat was recently changed from Republican Favored to the more competitive Leans Republican.
Back in Alabama, most observers believe Democrats have a better chance of picking up the southeastern 2nd District seat, which is being left open by retiring Rep. Terry Everett and which has a black voting-age population of 27 percent, than unseating Rogers in the 3rd District.
In part, that’s because national Democrats have focused more attention on putting the 2nd District in their column and keeping hold of the northern 5th District, where veteran Democratic Rep. Robert E. “Bud” Cramer is retiring.
Davis says it would be smart to keep an eye on African American voters in all three districts.
“In the Alabama races, particularly in districts 2 and 3, I think you’re going to see the largest black turnout we’ve ever seen,” he said.
Comments
To stir the pot. Why is it that when 90%+ of black American democrats who vote for Obama they are not called racist. But when white American democrats who vote for McCain ARE called racists?? What gives??
To : Louis comments... First of all, 80-85 % of African Americans vote as democrats anyway; you will rarely see a african american vote for a republician, because republicians are known to be for the richer OK...Secondly, Democrats are for the middle class and poor class..Have you picked up a book lately...Umm it wouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who you're voting for...McBush Obama/Biden A pray for Louis: Lord help the idiots who don't no any better...I blame the parents!
90%+ of African-Americans already vote democratic anyway. Thats what gives.
I don't know any racists, but I know a lot of white folk who are voting for McCain. Your gross overstatement makes no sense whatsoever. Pot unstirred.
Hi Louis....I won't use the word "racist" I'll just say "questionable"...Anyway if a white democrat is voting for McCain because Obama is black then that is "questionable." If those same white democrats would have voted for a white democrat such as Hillary or Edwards or whomever than I can see how one can characterize that as "questionable." I truly do not believe that those blacks who are voting for Obama are voting for him BECAUSE John McCain is white. And let's be clear, to me, this has nothing to do with blacks voting for Obama because he so happens to be black (really half-black, but whatever)...Blacks traditionally vote Democratic..Kerry got about 85%+ of the vote, Gore got cabout 90...so if Obama weren't the candidate...close to 90 would have voted for Hillary.... Hopefully I stopped the pot from stirring
Thanks Cocoa Butter. Yes, we (blacks) pretty much vote democratic anyway. During the primaries many of us were for Hillary and many of us were for Obama. Well, Hillary isn't running so we've got Obama. You don't get out much, I see. Sad.
Ever since the new Deal and civil rights era blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, its one of the main reason why states like Maryland are democratic bastions
What is really a shame, is that it was Republicans, that helped the most with the Cival Rights Movement,not The Democrats. are the Party, that was against AA's having rights. Isn't that just a kick in the head?
Go Joshua go! We're trying to build a money wave to help usher Josh into the AL - 03 Congressional seat for Democrats. Join us @ http://www.actblue.com/page/joshsegalldailykos
Thanks CQ for upgrading the race of Joshua Segall for Alabama's 3rd Congressional District. If anyone out there has any money left after the stock collapse, any small amount can greatly help us. please donate to Segall to get a Democrat into that seat, and give Mike Rogers a nice vacation. actblueDOTcomSLASHpageSLASHjoshsegalldailykos
As I understand it, the Dems controlled Congress and the WH when civil rights legislation was passed. Keep in mind, that the president who did the most was from Texas, a very white Democrat, etc. etc. in addition, I don't know why the GOP complains, just because Johnson did the right thing, he tore his party apart and gave the GOP seven presidential victories. Most GOP candidates have exploited racial animosity at the national level, or at least the presidential level, when all is said and done.
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