CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 2, 2008 – 5:20 p.m.
GOP Rep. Dent Favored to Offset Obama’s Edge in Eastern Pennsylvania District
By Christina Parisi, CQ Staff
Two-term Republican Rep. Charlie Dent isn’t one of the most vulnerable House Republican incumbents this year. But neither is he totally secure in his race against local Democratic Party activist Siobhan “Sam” Bennett in Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District in a contest CQ Politics rates as Republican Favored.
Dent’s image as a Republican moderate, honed during a lengthy tenure in the Pennsylvania legislature, enabled him to win with 59 percent of the vote in the 2004 race to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Patrick J. Toomey. But he did so even as Democrat John Kerry edged President Bush by 1 percentage point among voters in the eastern Pennsylvania district, which includes cities such Allentown and Bethlehem and still has a sizable blue-collar base from its past as a major steel-making center.
Dent slipped to 54 percent against unheralded Democratic competition in 2006 — “a difficult year for Republicans,” he says in something of an understatement about a campaign season that cost the GOP 30 seats and its House majority. The elections left Dent one of just eight Republicans currently representing districts that Kerry carried for president in 2004.
And says he is aware that in order to win this year, he will need to create a number of Dent-Obama voters — meaning residents who are willing to split their tickets by voting for Democrat Barack Obama for president and Republican Dent for Congress.
In fact, Bennett’s hopes for an upset hinge on a heavy turnout of Obama supporters. Her campaign aides note that in the presidential primary held April 22, Obama and Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton combined for more votes than Dent received in his 2006 general election. Gary Ritterstein, communications director for Bennett’s campaign, said Clinton recently endorsed Bennett, adding that his side expects former supporters of Clinton’s White House bid to rally behind the Democratic House candidate.
While the economy of the 15th District has in recent years taken on a white-collar hue — it even is home to some who commute long-distance to jobs in the New York City area — it retains a significant organized labor presence. Bennett has secured 31 union endorsements, while Dent, who has sided with unions on some issues, has endorsements from seven labor organizations.
Although Bennett still appears something of a long-shot challenger, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) placed her in its “Red to Blue” program that provides stepped-up financial and logistical assistance to party candidates deemed as staging significant challenges to take over Republican seats. The program’s name refers to the colors denoting the parties on political maps, with candidates seeking to turn districts from Republican red to Democratic blue.
But the DCCC has not yet committed any independent expenditures for ads boosting Bennett in Pennsylvania 15 — something she definitely could use, given that she trails incumbent Dent significantly at fundraising. While Bennett’s bankroll of $870,000 in total receipts through Oct. 15 was certainly not bad for an underdog challenger, it was just under half of the roughly $1.8 million reported by Dent. There was a much bigger percentage disparity in cash on hand remaining for the final three weeks of the campaign, with Dent at $489,000 and Bennett just $67,000.
As in the case in virtually all of this year’s House races, both campaigns cited the economy as a crucial issue in their district. Dent contends “the best stimulus for economic growth and prosperity is keeping money in the hands of the people who earned it,” and describes the current recessionary period as a “terrible time...to raise taxes.” He also emphasizes the need for U.S. energy independence and favors increased domestic exploration for energy resources.
Bennett is campaigning on environmentally friendly “green” jobs, granting incentives for energy-efficient homes, putting a freeze on home foreclosures, creating a universal tax credit for mortgage holders, and ensuring retirement security by protecting Social Security and private 401(k) plans.
The candidates have had to adjust to the crisis that developed in the nation’s financial sector in September. Bennett’s campaign boasts that the Democratic candidate announced her support of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act — the controversial legislation referred to alternatively as the financial industry “rescue” or “bailout” bill — “before looking at the polls, before looking at the politics.”
Dent voted against the original version of the measure that was defeated in the House, with his campaign explaining that “he felt it was rushed and contained too few protections for American taxpayers.” Dent, however, was one of 58 members to change from “no” to “yes” on the successful second version that had been altered and passed first by the Senate. Though he said he wasn’t enthusiastic about the amended version, Dent said the bill was “vastly improved,” and that action had to be taken to prevent an even bigger economic crisis.
Dent has sought to take advantage of a Bennett “gaffe” during a debate that was taped for later showing, even though the mistake was not aired. Bennett referred to two “folded” banks that in fact had not gone under, leading Dent to label Bennett’s campaign as “fact free.” The Bennett campaign requested the mistake be edited out before airing, and Dent’s campaign agreed “in deference” to the banks.
GOP Rep. Dent Favored to Offset Obama’s Edge in Eastern Pennsylvania District
The candidates differ on how to end the nation’s long military commitment to the Iraq war. Bennett is one of a group of 10 Democratic congressional candidates who authored a report titled “A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq,” which includes a plan to withdraw U.S. forces to “free up the resources needed to help the Iraqis begin the process of rebuilding their country.” Dent has consistently opposed setting a schedule for U.S. withdrawal, stating he favors “time horizons” that should be “negotiated” with Iraqi officials and “not mandated.”
Each campaign has gone negative to try to score points against the other. Dent has a Web site called scambennett.com, to which he links from his own campaign’s home page. Bennett’s site currently includes a video titled “It’s Sam or the same,” implying that Dent favors a continuation of the policies that have drawn President Bush very low approval ratings for much of his second term. This theme is repeated on a site, charliedentmoreofthesame.com. Both are grabbing at any opportunity to insert a negative comment about their opponent.
Bennett’s campaign calls Dent politically expedient, noting that the incumbent’s score in Congressional Quarterly’s presidential support rating — which measures how often members voted with Bush on legislation on which the president announced a position — dropped from 80 percent in 2006 to 49 percent in 2007.
Dent has termed Bennett an “extreme” liberal, and claims he has “much stronger cross-over appeal” among district voters. He said, “There are a lot of yards that have my sign and Senator Obama’s sign. I don’t think you can find a house in this district where there’d be a John McCain sign and one of my opponent’s.”




Comments
This is the district where I grew up. It really did pain me walking around and seeing all the Dent signs in my neighborhood - this district was reliably democratic 8 years ago. Come on, Lehigh Valley, get rid of this yutz.
Excellent analysis!
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