The special election in upstate New York’s 20th District remains too close to call, but that hasn’t stopped each side’s operatives from claiming political victory.

Republican candidate Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy have expressed confidence they will come out ahead in the contest, which was set in February to replace Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand , who was appointed to the Senate. The national parties, meanwhile, are each trying to frame the outcome as a sign of political gains, not to mention a fundraising incentive.

The election results Tuesday night gave Murphy a 59-vote lead out of 155,000 votes cast; Wednesday afternoon the Associated Press reported that according to its unofficial tally, Murphy’s lead had shrunk to 25 votes as canvassing got underway. And there could be as many as 10,000 ballots still to be counted.

The final tally won’t be available for another two weeks — the deadline for receipt of absentee ballots is April 7; for overseas and military ballots it is April 13. Local election officials issued approximately 10,000 absentee ballots; 6,000 have been mailed in so far but were not included in the election night tally. There are also approximately 1,000 overseas and military ballots yet to be counted.

Murphy visited a diner in his hometown of Glen Falls, N.Y., today to thank voters for their support. “Eight weeks ago, we were down over 20 points and they said this couldn’t be done,” he said. “Thanks to our unbelievable grass-roots supporters who helped build this amazing campaign in just eight weeks, we’ve defied the odds and we won a majority of votes cast Tuesday.”

Murphy started out as a distinct underdog in the race against Tedisco, a veteran state lawmaker. But he advanced in the polls by late March thanks to a relentless campaign tying himself to President Obama’s economic policies and criticizing Tedisco’s lack of position and then opposition to the president’s $787 billion stimulus package (PL 111-5).

Tedisco hit back by claiming Murphy’s support of the stimulus amounted to support for executive bonuses to insurance giant American International Group Inc., which has been propped up with billions in taxpayer funds.

Tedisco was back in Albany Wednesday tending to his job as the state Assembly’s minority leader. Spokesman Joshua Fitzpatrick, however, said the election was “ongoing,” and asserted that the Republican has a lead among absentee ballots.

The National Republican Congressional Committee echoed that assertion. In a memo sent to reporters Wednesday, the committee wrote, “There is currently a Republican advantage among the absentee and military ballots that exceed the current Murphy lead.”

But Republican voters do not necessarily translate into Tedisco voters. Republicans enjoy a 70,000 voter-registration advantage in the district, yet the race as it stands now is a virtual tie. And independent voters, which have swung Democrat in recent years, make up a quarter of registered voters and no doubt a significant portion of absentee voters, as well.

Despite that, the NRCC is painting the outcome as a success for the GOP given the fact that the district “has performed well for Democrats in recent elections.” Gillibrand easily won the House seat in 2008, they noted, while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , whom Gillibrand replaced, won the district in 2006. Obama also eked out a win among district voters, 51 percent to 49 percent for John McCain , in the November presidential election.

Democrats made the opposite point. “Scott’s performance tonight in an overwhelmingly Republican district, where Republicans enjoy a registration advantage over Democrats of more than 70,000, represents a repudiation of the failed politics and policies that Republicans continue to embrace,” Tim Kaine , chairman of the Democratic National Committee and Virginia governor, said in a statement.

Democrats, moreover, are projecting that Murphy will win the balance of outstanding absentee ballots.