CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
May 16, 2009 – 8:52 a.m.
GOP Primary Brawl Likely to Determine Brownback’s Successor
By Katie Brown, CQ Staff
There will be heated competition next year for the U.S. Senate seat that Kansas Republican Sam Brownback is leaving open, presumably to pursue a bid for governor. But the big battle is far more likely to be in the Republican primary than the general election.
The GOP contest has drawn both of the state’s veteran Republican U.S. House members: seven-term incumbent Jerry Moran of the sprawling, mostly rural 1st District and Todd Tiahrt , an eight-termer from the south-central 4th District that includes Wichita. Hardly surprising, given that job security is a fringe benefit for Republican senators in this longtime GOP stronghold. Kansas voters last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.
Brownback won three times, comfortably in a 1996 special election and by landslides in his 1998 and 2004 re-election campaigns.
Open seats historically are more difficult for a party to hold than those defended by incumbents, and retirements in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio are causing headaches for national Republican strategists in the run-up to the 2010 elections.
Democrats’ hopes for making a serious run at Brownback’s Kansas seat for a while appeared to hinge on the prospect of bid by Kathleen Sebelius , whose 2002 and 2006 wins for governor made her a rare success story for Democrats in statewide politics. That came off the table when Sebelius was tapped by President Obama to be secretary of Health and Human Services and was confirmed by the Senate on April 28.
Even Sebelius would have been no more than an even-money bet to once again trump the inherent advantage Republicans hold in Kansas politics. In 2008 — a terrible year for the Republican Party nationally — presidential nominee John McCain easily outran Democrat Barack Obama in Kansas by 57 percent to 42 percent and Republican Sen. Pat Roberts cruised to an easy win for his third term.
Little wonder, then, that Moran was so anxious to throw his hat in the ring for the 2010 Senate nomination that he announced his candidacy last November, just three days after he scored his typically easy House re-election victory. Tiahrt, also a big winner in his 2008 House race, waited until February to officially declare his entry.
A recent early poll sounding suggests a close race is in store. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 Kansas adults April 17-19 and reported that 39 percent backed Moran, 35 percent backed Tiahrt and 26 percent were undecided.
The two have taken similar positions on one of the day’s hot-button issues: what to do with those detained on suspicion of terrorist associations, at the controversial Guantánamo Bay prison complex in Cuba that President Obama had pledged to close.
Both have strongly stated opposition to any attempt to relocate any of the prisoners to the maximum-security military facility at Fort Leavenworth in northeastern Kansas. Tiahrt has attempted to gain the initiative on the issue by stating that he will use his seat on the high-profile Appropriations Committee to try to block federal funds from being used to transfer Guantánamo detainees to anywhere on U.S. soil.
Debating in the Wings
A cursory examination of Moran’s and Tiahrt’s voting records suggests a showdown between two Republicans with strongly conservative views. In 2008, the final year of Republican George W. Bush ’s presidency, Tiahrt sided with most House Republicans against most Democrats on 92 percent of legislative votes, while Moran had a 90 percent “party unity” score; both backed Bush on 69 percent of House votes on which the president took a position.
Yet the candidates likely are going to be defined at least to some extent by a long-running and often bitter battle within the ranks of the Kansas Republican Party, between “establishment” Republicans who focus heavily on economic and foreign policy issues and a conservative activist constituency that, among other issues, is energized by social issues.
Tiahrt, who is well-known for his opposition to abortion, is more in the latter camp. Ties to the social conservative or “pro-life” wing fueled the political emergence of the former airline project manager, first in a win for the state Senate in 1992 and then in his big upset of nine-term Democratic Rep. Dan Glickman in the 4th District House election just two years later.
“If life is an important issue for you, you know that Todd Tiahrt has not only voted right, but has taken action,” said Chuck Knapp, a Tiahrt campaign spokesman.
Knapp cited the Tiahrt Amendment, signed into law in October 1998 as part of a spending bill for international programs. The provision barred U.S. funds from family planning projects in other countries that involved non-voluntary activities such as forced abortion or sterilization.
Tiahrt in the current Congress is a cosponsor of a bill (
Moran, a lawyer and banker, has been more identified as a member of the GOP establishment during a political career that began with a 1989-97 tenure in the state Senate and a stint as majority leader during his last two years in that body.
Moran, nonetheless, is also trying to reach out to the Kansas GOP’s large socially conservative base. According to Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, “Moran is making a concerted effort not to get painted as more moderate than Tiahrt. It is fascinating to see him get as far to the right as he possibly can.”
Moran campaign manager Aaron Trost stated, “Congressman Moran’s strong stand against wasteful spending and wasteful earmarks” is a factor that differentiates the candidates. His campaign, casting Moran as an independent voice, cites instances in which his opposition to spending and growth in government exceeded that of the Republican Party’s leadership.
These include three major measures pushed into law by Bush — the overhaul of federal education policy labeled No Child Left Behind (PL 107-110), the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (PL 107-296), and the prescription drug benefit (PL 108-173) for the elderly under Medicare — on grounds that the legislation was too expensive and expanded the government too much.
Moran, benefiting from the hard-wired Republican dominance in the 1st District, easily won his first House contest in 1996 when Roberts left the seat open for his first Senate run. His re-election contests were so one-sided that he was able to pile up $2.4 million in his House campaign account, which federal law allowed him to transfer to his new Senate campaign committee.
With the addition of more than a half-million dollars sent directly to his Senate campaign, Moran showed $2.9 million in cash on hand as of March 31 in his report for the year’s first quarter.
That overshadowed the sizable nest egg of $1.3 million in cash that Tiahrt reported, including $1 million from his House account. But his camp notes that Tiahrt was not able to salt away as big a reserve because he weathered a few competitive Democratic challenges over the years. And that, Tiahrt backers contend, makes him a better-seasoned candidate than Moran.
“He has had several tough campaigns in the past,” said Knapp. “He has a battle-tested team that knows how to deal with adversity.”
Loomis said that’s a view shared by some outside the Tiahrt campaign. “With fundraising right now, Moran is demonstrating decent political skills,” said the longtime observer of Kansas politics. “But a lot of Democrats over the years made the argument that he might run into problems due to his lack of experience running competitive campaigns.”




Comments
Since the "Big First" is his base -which tends to cast a disproportionate share of (R) primary ballots- and the geographically compact CD-03 is the spiritual home of the centrist faction which, his current posturing aside, would be inclined to back him, this de facto election seems to be Precariously Favoured for Moran.
Moran has another advantage. His IQ is about 40 points higher than Tiahrt's. Tiahrt has some nasty skeletons in his closet. He has run dirty campaigns in the past so he would be imperilling himself it he tried that this time.
Agreed, Tiahrt is thick as a brick compared to Moran. Since it is unlikely Kansas can find anyone(D) to take this seat now that Sebelius has moved up, it just makes sense that we should elect the smarter of the two. Moran is much less likely to become a lightning rod for the Palinites, although they WILL vote for him because of his looks, and he can "rightly" claim to share "some"of their core values. Problem is, while Moran will keep some safe distance between himself and the Limbaugh wing of the Republican Party (you know, that one BIG wing on the right side?) Tiahrt will be reduced to pandering shamelessly to them. While it is true, there's a real wingnut contingency in this state, there are also enough moderate Republicans to recognize that they no longer matter to the Palin/Limbaugh Republicans on the national front.
Apparently all that money we spend on the prison at Leavenworth is wasted. Lets just bull doze that sucker when we bull doze Gitmo.
Moran smart? This clown, facing a primary in KS, said Obama is better than Geo Bush on the front page of the KC Star. I also remember when he was voting pro choice in the KS legislature. My money in a KS primary is on Tiahrt.
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