CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 4, 2009 – 10:08 a.m.
Palin Faced a Rocky Road if She Filled Out Her Term
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
While Alaska’s political circles were left reeling by Republican Gov. Sarah Palin ’s surprise resignation announcement Friday, politicians on both sides of the aisle in Alaska had already begun preparing for her possible departure from office.
Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, had yet to confirm whether she would run for a second term in 2010, prompting wide speculation she would retire and possibly devote her full attention to a 2012 presidential campaign.
She was facing a rocky road to the end of her term with falling approval numbers, criticism that she was paying too much attention to national matters and not the state, continuing ethics inquiries, efforts by news organizations to obtain emails written during the 2008 campaign and stories about her family that were grist for tabloids and even late-night comedian David Letterman.
But in the aftermath of Palin’s announcement, state politicians made clear that the resignation was highly unexpected.
The sharpest response came from Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski , a fellow Republican, who issued a statement saying, “I am deeply disappointed that the Governor has decided to abandon the State and her constituents before her term has concluded.”
There has been speculation that, among Palin’s ambitions, was a primary challenge to Murkowski in 2010.
“Republicans across Alaska and the nation were surprised to learn today that our Governor, Sarah Palin will be stepping down and not seeking re-election,” the Alaska Republican party said in a statement.
And Alaska Democratic Sen. Mark Begich expressed his own personal shock at the news: “I’m as surprised as all Alaskans by Governor Palin’s decision to step down with nearly two years left in her term. There was speculation she would not seek re-election, but she gave no indication of a resignation when I met with her for 45 minutes in her Anchorage office two days ago,” Begich said in a statement.
Palin announced at a press conference in front of her home in Wasilla July 3 that she will resign July 26, at which time Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will become governor and automatically serve the remainder of her current term.
Parnell has made no secret of his ambitions for higher office. He nearly ousted Republican Rep. Don Young in the 2008 GOP primary race. As the gubernatorial incumbent, Parnell would become the odds on favorite to win a full term in 2010.
But it doesn’t appear that will prompt other Republicans to clear the field for Parnell. Republican state Rep. John Harris, who had indicated he would run for governor if Palin did not, told local news outlets he will establish a campaign, and additional Republicans candidates are expected to jump in the race.
On the Democratic side, Democrats had already been preparing for a 2010 race against Palin or in the event of her retirement. Democrat Bob Poe, who has held several public sector positions including Executive Director of the Alaska Energy Authority, has been actively campaigning against the governor. Poe welcomed her decision Friday.
“As I stated when I announced my candidacy, Alaska needs a Governor who is fully committed our state, not on other jobs and I am pleased Sarah Palin recognized this and is doing the right thing for Alaska,” Poe said in a statement.
Additional Democrats had indicated an interest in the race prior to Palin’s announcement and are now regarded as even more likely to enter the contest. Earlier this week, Democratic state Sen. Hollis French announced he had filed with the state Division of Elections to run for governor, but made clear at that time he had yet to make an official decision regarding a campaign.
Former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, the 2008 Democratic nominee against Young, also reiterated he is “seriously considering a run.” In 2006, when Parnell ran successfully as Palin’s running mate, Berkowitz was the Democratic lieutenant governor candidate on the ticket of Democratic former Gov. Tony Knowles.
The state of Alaska is typically Republican territory. Though most of the state’s voters are registered as unaffiliated or as third party, they historically have voted with the GOP. Alaska voters in November favored Republican John McCain with 59 percent of the vote over 38 percent for Barack Obama .
Democrats cite Begich’s successful ouster of Republican Sen. Ted Stevens last year as evidence of their potential growth in the typically GOP-leaning state. But, Stevens, as well as Young, were hampered by a federal investigation.
CQ Politics rates the race for governor Republican Favored.
Though Palin’s power of incumbency made her a strong candidate for re-election, polls showed that her approval ratings back home had diminished somewhat since her time on the national stage.
Palin’s retirement rumors had prompted state and national observers to question whether she would run against Murkowski in 2010 to try and build her resume in Washington. Palin announced in April her support for Murkowski’s re-election, but polls by that time had already shown Murkowski would be favored.
A May Hays Research Group poll of Alaskans in households where a member has voted in recent state elections showed Palin with a 54 percent positive approval rating and a 41 percent negative rating. Murkowski received a 76 percent positive approval rating and a 18 percent negative rating.
Palin critics in the state struck out at the governor for appearing to focus on presidential politics while remaining in the governor’s office. Palin has reportedly signed a book deal and has remained connected to national events through her political action committee, SarahPAC.
Palin said Friday her resignation would prevent Alaska from having a lame duck governor, until her assumed retirement in 2010. But critics question whether the negative press and attention placed on her at home and on the national stage is what prompted her abrupt exit.
An article in Vanity Fair magazine posted online last month drew new attention to Palin’s decline as the 2008 vice presidential nominee and revealed additional criticism from running mate John McCain ’s staff.
She also faced multiple ethics complaints that had been filed against her or her staff.
On June 23rd, Palin’s office announced that the 15th ethics complaint filed against her or her administration that had been dismissed. The June 23rd case alleged that a staffer used her position for personal gain by traveling with Palin.
And multiple national news organizations report they are awaiting the release of email correspondence from the governor which took place before the November 2008 campaign. The correspondence has been requested through state public records requests.
As for any possible presidential ambitions, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling noted his firm has found that Palin remains well-positioned to win her party’s nomination at this very early stage in the presidential race, but that when it came to a general election, she does the worst of any potential GOP contenders against President Obama.
“Monthly national PPP surveys looking at the 2012 contest for President have consistently found Palin as the most popular of the likely Republican candidates with Republican voters,” Jensen wrote on PPP’s website.
“Around 75 percent of them have a positive opinion of her, ranking her above Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich every time we’ve polled it.”
Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts each competed for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. Former House GOP speaker Newt Gingrich continues to be regarded as a leader of the Republicans by some members of his party.
But if she did become the party’s nominee, Jensen said “to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it’s a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it’s already been formed . . . My guess is that Palin never holds elected office again.”
Comments
Presuming she does not walk away from the national political arena, Palin has (at least) two paths before her: 1) Seek the presidency in '12, win the party nomination, but then not just lose but perhaps post THIRD (or worse) in the popular and/or Electoral College vote; or 2) Forswear the Top Spot for good, but play the role of kingmaker and, should her chosen candidate makes it all the way, can become the female Deng Xiaoping or Richard Bruce Cheney. And, I concur with Jensen that she shall never hold elected office ever again!
What kind of irresponsible loon would quit her elected office in the middle of her term because supposedly the press hurt her feelings and/or she thought being a lame duck would be too expensive? Does that sound like presidential material to you? You beltway journos are certifiably nuts to discuss a possible Palin "presidential bid" with a straight face. What the hell is wrong with you?
This all has the feeling of one of those absolutely dreadful reality-TV shows. And only a week after the death of MJ. What is happening to the culture?
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: