CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 27, 2009 – 5:17 p.m.
Polls Roll in McDonnell’s Favor
By Greg Giroux, CQ-Roll Call
Is the Virginia governor’s race a done deal? If two polls released Tuesday are any indication, it would appear so — and even a stump by President Obama might not change things before Election Day.
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 23-26 puts Republican Bob McDonnell ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds by a double-digit margin one week before Virginians vote on Nov. 3.
The PPP survey of 729 likely voters puts McDonnell at 55 percent and Deeds at 40 percent. McDonnell is carrying more self-identified Republicans (94 percent) than Deeds is winning Democrats (84 percent), and McDonnell has a commanding 59 percent to 34 percent lead among political independents.
Deeds continues to be hurt by a poor public image. Just 38 percent of respondents said they viewed him favorably, compared to 56 percent who said that about McDonnell. Just one in four voters thinks that Deeds is running a “positive” campaign, vs. 59 percent who think he is waging a “negative” campaign.
President Obama on Tuesday will campaign for Deeds at Old Dominion University in Norfolk. But even Obama doesn’t fare well in this survey, which gives him an approval rating of just 42 percent and a disapproval rating of 52 percent in a state that he carried with 53 percent of the vote in the 2008 election. Other surveys of the Virginia governor’s race have given Obama an approval rating in the low 50s.
The other poll of Virginia voters from SurveyUSA and conducted Oct. 25-26 puts McDonnell up by 17 percentage points. It’s the fifth public poll in the past week that gives him a commanding, double-digit lead over Deeds.
The SurveyUSA poll, which canvassed 502 voters who say they are likely to cast a ballot on Nov. 3, has McDonnell up by 58 percent to 41 percent. McDonnell also has a strong lead among political independents, 60 percent to 38 percent.
McDonnell is peeling away parts of the voter coalition that has boosted recent Democratic successes in Virginia, including Tim Kaine ’s election as governor in 2005 and Obama’s election as president in 2008.
SurveyUSA says that McDonnell is winning 21 percent of African-Americans, who usually give at least 90 percent of their votes to Democratic candidates; 16 percent of those who said they voted for Obama; 14 percent of self-identified Democrats; and 38 percent of those who describe their position on abortion as “pro-choice.” McDonnell is a longstanding opponent of abortion, though he has largely ignored that issue and focused instead on the economy and transportation.
Here’s a summary of the most recent polls:
Public Policy Polling, Oct. 23-26: McDonnell 58, Deeds 41
Washington Post, Oct. 22-25: McDonnell 55, Deeds 44
Public Policy Polling, Oct. 16-19: McDonnell 52, Deeds 40
SurveyUSA, Oct. 17-19: McDonnell 59, Deeds 40
CQ Politics rates the Virginia governor’s race as Leans Republican.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors’ races, check out CQ Politics’ election map.




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