However, Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports observed in an analysis of the polling Monday that all three independent surveys “show Coakley right around the 50 percent mark,” which, he said, would make the race “hers to lose.”

In general, Democratic strategists believe Coakley is neither as far ahead as the most favorable polls show her to be, nor is she in a dead heat with Brown, as the PPP survey purports.

“I believe we’re comfortably ahead,” said one Democratic party strategist, who spoke on background so as to discuss the race candidly. But, he added, “In this climate and this environment I wouldn’t take anything for granted.”

The uncertainty, driven by the unpredictable turnout and national political unrest, has generated hope among national Republicans, who are flocking to Brown, as well as a scramble among Democrats, who hope to counter GOP energy with their own turnout operation.

The lower the turnout, the more it benefits Brown, as Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com observed in an analysis Monday. He noted that among those voters extremely interested the race was even in the Globe and Rasmussen polls, but Coakley led comfortably when moderately and less committed voters were included in the tally.

The GOP enthusiasm for Brown has been swift and sudden. After campaigning in near obscurity since September, Brown’s campaign began to gain traction over the holidays, thanks in part to his pitch to become the 41st Senate vote against the Democrats’ health care reform legislation.

The American Future Fund is spending $400,000 on an ad attacking Coakley’s position on taxes and Brown has received several endorsements from high-profile Republicans. A spokesman for Our Country Deserves Better said it plans to begin airing ads in the days leading up to the election.

On Monday, Brown raised more than $1.3 million through a “MoneyBomb” campaign online.

The national party, however, has yet to report any independent expenditure spending on Brown’s behalf, which would be a sure sign the party thinks it has a chance to win the seat.

Democrats, meanwhile, blame the national climate, as well as Coakley’s low profile on the campaign trail of late, for Brown’s recent surge in momentum. But they believe the dynamics will shift in the race’s final week.

Brown is now airing his third TV ad of the general election, while Coakley is only on her first. “The guy’s been on TV a lot,” said the strategist supporting Coakley. “He’s been communicating free and clear here for a while.”

“Martha just started her TV and it’s heavy, she’s got a lot of point behinds it,” he added.

Ferson said Coakley needs to be more aggressive down the stretch. “You have to actually give people a reason to vote for you,” he said, likening her behavior to the Tsongas campaign in the 2007 special election. “You got to close the deal, and she has not closed the deal.”