By Mark Stencel, CQ Columnist

The absurdity of Americans’ casual dependence on all things electronic revealed itself to me recently in a restaurant men’s room. First a poorly set motion detector required me to wave continuously, like a stranded castaway trying to signal a passing plane, just to keep the lights on. Then the electric paper towel dispenser jammed.

This reliance on gadgetry extends from mechanical toothbrushes and wireless car keys to life-saving medical equipment and complex systems for accessing and securing bank records. It also explains why some security experts fear a potentially continent-crippling electromagnetic pulse attack on the United States.

Doomsday scenarios involving electromagnetic pulse weapons are a product of Cold War nuclear tests in the early 1960s. Those tests showed that high-altitude nuclear blasts create far-reaching atmospheric effects that could instantly shut down power grids. They also could, at least in theory, fry almost anything that plugs into a wall, attaches to a phone line or depends on sensitive circuitry. Electrical systems might be knocked offline for weeks, if not months, disrupting or disabling transportation, communication, health and financial systems, as well as many other basic public services.

The threat was serious enough that U.S. and Soviet forces began hardening critical military components against such effects — while incorporating the concept into strategies for countering each other’s technological advantages in a potential nuclear conflict.

With increased concerns about the worldwide proliferation of nuclear know-how and missile technology since the Cold War, some defense experts have put the possibility of an attack using an electromagnetic pulse weapon high on their lists of homeland security threats. Conventional nuclear weapons, bioterrorism and cyberwarfare remain on those lists, too. But the idea of a foe kicking the nation’s metaphorical power cord out of the wall, effectively turning back time for millions of people for months or years, seems to stir the imagination of those who make policy.

Speculating about Iran’s intentions at a 2005 Senate hearing, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich warned of the “catastrophic impact” of the electromagnetic pulse from “a single Iranian nuclear missile,” which he said “could quickly turn a third or more of the United States back to a 19th century level of development.”

Gingrich’s testimony echoed the conclusions released the previous year by a commission created by Congress to study that exact threat. The panel’s findings were dire: An electromagnetic pulse from certain kinds of nuclear blasts could create “unprecedented cascading failures of our major infrastructure,” and the arduous recovery from such an attack “would seriously degrade the safety and overall viability of our nation.”

Gauging the Threats

Scary predictions like that have long made so-called e-bombs good material for Hollywood writers, who have woven similar weapons into the plot lines of recent TV shows such as “24,” “Jericho” and “Dark Angel.” But the threat also is inspiring government action, and not just at the federal level. In Maryland, officials are considering forming a state-level task force to look at how to protect critical infrastructure from electromagnetic pulses, and a state technology grant is funding a pilot project designed to help local officials, utilities, hospitals and others think through their needs for preparing for such an attack (www.safe9-1-1.com).

Where the potential damage from an electromagnetic pulse actually falls in the grand scheme of “when, not if” threats to our way of life is hard to say. A Congressional Research Service report reiterates much of the congressional commission’s findings. But CRS also notes that “some analysts discount the likelihood of a large-scale EMP attack” and question “the extent of possible damage, stating that the critical infrastructure would survive.” Critics of the panel have accused the commissioners of exaggerating the dangers to justify increased spending on ballistic missile defenses, which members of the panel also have strongly advocated.

The specific threat from an electromagnetic pulse is ultimately less significant than the fear on which it is based: the potential loss of the electronic infrastructure of modern life. Appreciating that vulnerability doesn’t require a rogue nation to hurl a nuclear missile high into our skies. The cascading human and system failures that left millions of Floridians in the dark in February and the even more widespread Northeastern blackout in 2003 underscore the current fragility of the U.S. power grid.

Many of the commission’s recommendations for heading off an electromagnetic doomsday — especially those that involve disaster planning and fortifying electrical and telecommunications systems — might be prudent investments. They would prepare the United States for all manner of man-made calamity, as well as natural disasters, including hurricanes, earthquakes and massive solar storms. Most important, they address the real source of our fear, which is the target, not the weapon.

Mark Stencel is deputy publisher and a technology columnist for Governing magazine, published by Congressional Quarterly Inc. For a complete listing of his columns, click here.

First posted March 30, 2008 12:35 p.m.

Correction
Corrects the original sponsorship of a congressional commission that studied the threat posed by electromagnetic pulse weapons.