CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
April 15, 2008 – 12:13 a.m.
Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race
By Greg Giroux and Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
Is Barack Obama trailing Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania by double digit percentages? Or has he closed the gap to single digits, as recent polls suggest? Could he even win the April 22 primary — a shocking upset that probably would force Clinton to the sidelines? These are among the questions that have the hearts of the punditocracy atwitter in the run-up to the first Democratic presidential balloting in six weeks.
We at CQ Politics are pondering those too. But we look ahead to next week’s vote in Pennsylvania a bit differently: How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote?
That answer will be mainly determined not by the sum of the votes Clinton and Obama win in Pennsylvania, but rather by the state’s parts. Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party’s national convention in Denver this August, and most of them — 103 to be exact — will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts.
And a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules.
These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race.
Of the state’s remaining 84 slots, only 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state’s remaining 29 seats going to unpledged “superdelegates.”
The 103 district-level delegates are not distributed evenly. Democratic-leaning congressional districts are awarded more delegates than Republican-leaning districts. The state’s 2nd District, a Democratic bastion centered in Philadelphia, has nine district delegates to divvy up among Clinton and Obama. The heavily Republican 9th District, in the south-central part of the state, has just three. (For a district-by-district allocation of delegates, please click here.
One doesn’t need great predictive powers to estimate how many delegates Clinton and Obama will win in most of Pennsylvania’s 19 congressional districts. That’s because the district delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, and each candidate’s delegate allocation is rounded to the nearest whole number. That means the delegate allotments can be the same for a wide range of popular vote percentages.
Consider Pennsylvania’s 5th District, which has four district delegates. The popular vote tally between Clinton and Obama should be close. But for the purposes of awarding district delegates, it doesn’t really matter who wins a tight race because the winner would need to take more than 62.5 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania’s 5th — or in any other four-delegate district — to earn a 3-1 delegate split. (Multiplying four by .625 equals 2.5, so a candidate who receives, say, 65 percent of the vote would receive a delegate share that would be subsequently rounded up to three). So if Clinton defeats Obama, 60 percent to 40 percent, the district delegates would split 2-2; if Obama defeats Clinton, 60 percent to 40 percent, a 2-2 split would also ensue.
In a five-delegate district, a narrow win would yield a 3-2 delegate advantage. A 70 percent super-majority would be needed to win four out of five. For this reason, it’s highly likely that each of the five Pennsylvania districts that award five district delegates will yield 3-2 splits.
One district where the delegate split is more difficult to project is the 2nd, where Obama is expected to easily prevail in that majority-black district. He’ll surely win at least six of the nine district delegates, though CQ politics projects that he will earn a 7-2 split by winning at least 72.2 percent of the district vote. (Going from 6-3 to 7-2 is really a two-delegate gain, when you consider that this is a zero-sum game in which one candidate necessarily wins a delegate at the expense of his or her opponent).
Here are our predictions of how the 103 district-level delegates will be apportioned among Clinton and Obama in the April 22 primary election. We welcome readers to provide analysis in the comments section.
• 1st District (South and central Philadelphia; Chester). A little less than half the residents of Philadelphia’s 1st District are African American and Obama’s success in predominantly black communities, reaching above 90 percent in some, makes it clear he will do well here. CQ Politics Prediction: Obama 4, Clinton 3.
Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race
•2nd District (West Philadelphia; Chestnut Hill; Cheltenham). The 2nd is almost certain to go even more heavily for Obama than the neighboring 1st District. It stretches from “Center City” to West Philadelphia, and more than 60 percent of the residents are black. Not only is this likely to be Obama’s best district, but it is by far the most delegate-rich, which should help him offset Clinton wins in districts outside the Philadelphia region. Obama will win at least six of the nine delegates, and he would beat Clinton 7-2 if he exceeds 72.2 percent of the district vote. CQ Politics Prediction: Obama 7, Clinton 2
• 3rd District (Northwest — Erie). This district, way across the state from Philadelphia, is represented by labor-friendly Republican Rep. Phil English . It appears likely to follow Rust Belt trends in Ohio and New York and favor Clinton. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2
• 4th District (West — Pittsburgh suburbs). This district, which runs through the exurbs west of Pittsburgh and takes in suburbs north and northeast of the city, is almost certain to be Clinton country, as its politics is dominated by the working-class white union members who are in the core of Clinton’s base. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2
• 5th District (North central — State College). The Penn State University campus, which is located in the southern end of this sprawling district, should be a bastion of Obama support. But Clinton has fared well in Republican districts in populous states that have voted previously, including neighboring Ohio. Advantage Clinton, but her margin won’t be sufficient enough to break a 2-2 split. CQ Politics Prediction: Tie, 2-2.
• 6th District (Southeast — parts of Berks and Chester counties, Philadelphia suburbs). This area, where Republican Jim Gerlach has won each of his three U.S. House elections with 51 percent of the vote, should be a battleground in the Democratic presidential race as well. It’s hard to predict the winner here, but because the district has an even number of delegates (six), it seems clear that it will be a 3-3 split. CQ Politics Prediction: Tie, 3-3.
• 7th District (Suburban Philadelphia — most of Delaware County). The 7th flipped into Democratic hands in 2006 when retired Vice Admiral Joe Sestak rallied middle-class suburban voters and older, working-class whites to his side. Sestak was a defense policy official in the administration of Clinton’s husband, and he is backing the New York senator. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 4, Obama 3.
•8th District (Northern Philadelphia suburbs — Bucks County). Freshman Democratic Rep. Patrick J. Murphy , the only Iraq War veteran in Congress, is Obama’s state chairman and will no doubt work to turn this district in his favor. The district’s above-average median household income (just under $60,000 in 1999) bodes well for Obama, though Democratic voters here are a bit more conservative than their brethren in Philadelphia and some of the other suburbs. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 4, Obama 3.
•9th District (South central — Altoona). The heavily Republican 9th has the fewest Democratic delegates available – 3 – of all the congressional districts in the state. Clinton should fare well here and take two of the three delegates. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 2, Obama 1.
•10th District (Northeast — Central Susquehanna Valley). The 10th is a traditionally Republican district in the northeast corner of the state that has Democratic pockets in old industrial towns. If Clinton can’t win big here, she is in trouble in the state. Clinton should win the popular vote here rather easily, but not enough to overcome a 2-2 split in delegates. CQ Politics Prediction: Tie, 2-2.
• 11th District (Northeast — Scranton, Wilke-Barre). Clinton has family roots in Scranton, and has proven herself a capable vote-getter among the union families that still dominate the politics of the 11th District. Obama carries the backing of Sen. Bob Casey , the scion of a legendary local political family, but the value of his endorsement is limited. Clinton should win the 11th easily; a narrow victory would garner her a 3-2 edge in delegates here, but she’d need to win a whopping 70 percent of the vote to get a 4-1 edge. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2.
•12th District (Southwest — Johnstown). John P. Murtha , the local U.S. House member and dean of Pennsylvania congressional Democrats, has thrown his considerable support behind Clinton in a district that should favor her heavily. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2.
•13th District (East — Northeast Philadelphia, part of Montgomery County). The 13th, which is represented by two-term Democrat Allyson Y. Schwartz , should be among the most competitive districts in the state. Obama is likely to do well with wealthy white liberals, but have more trouble among working-class whites in the city and more conservative Democratic voters in the suburbs. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 4, Obama 3.
•14th District (Pittsburgh and some close-in suburbs). Pittsburgh’s economic rebirth in recent decades and the influx of white-collar jobs give it a modern feel that is odds with many of the blue-collar communities that surround it. The new wealth and an African American community nearing 25 percent of the 14th District’s population position Obama for a popular-vote victory. CQ Politics Prediction: Obama 4, Clinton 3.
Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race
•15th District (East — Allentown, Bethlehem). The politics of the Lehigh Valley are still dominated by ethnic whites who remember the region’s days as an industrial powerhouse. But the area also serves as a bedroom community for both Philadelphia and New York, and it has an increasingly suburban feel. It is overwhelmingly white, and Hispanic residents outnumber blacks by about two to one, a composition that is favorable to Clinton. She should win this district, which has five delegates. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2.
•16th District (Southeast — Lancaster, part of Reading). The 16th District, a Republican stronghold that takes in all of Lancaster County and portions of Berks and Chester counties, could be a battleground, according to local political experts. Those Democrats who have remained in their party in Lancaster County despite long being outnumbered by margins of 2-to-1 or greater by Republicans are actually fairly liberal. Rapid growth in the well-to-do Chester County portion of the district make the primary politics a bit unpredictable. But the rural, conservative nature of the district should give Clinton an edge in popular votes. This is a four-delegate district that should be an even split. CQ Politics Prediction: Tie, 2-2.
•17th District (East central — Harrisburg, Lebanon, Pottsville). As local Democratic Rep. Tim Holden notes, “Most Democrats in Pennsylvania are conservative, rural, not pro-choice, not gun control, the exception being the Philadelphia guys.” The description fits his east-central 17th District, which stretches across Harrisburg, Lebanon and Pottsville. The sprawling district and mix of communities make the vote percentages a tough call, but it seems pretty clear that this four-delegate district should give two apiece to Clinton and Obama. CQ Politics Prediction: Tie, 2-2.
•18th District (West — Pittsburgh suburbs, part of Washington and Westmoreland counties). The 18th District cradles Pittsburgh, taking in its wealthy suburban enclaves and a mix of working-class neighborhoods. This district should be good territory for Clinton. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2.
•19th District (South central — York, Gettysburg). This overwhelmingly Republican district has just four delegates, and is likely to split two to two. The conservative bent favors Clinton, but the local congressman, Republican Todd Platts, is known for his reform-minded politics and independent streak. If local Democratic voters value those traits above others in candidates, Obama will be highly competitive. CQ Politics Prediction: Tie, 2-2.
Comments
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL THING TO WATCH HILLARY, THE DRAGON LADY'S, CAMPAIGN IMPLODING.
Sunday am on cspan a women from California called in questioning why the media was not talking about a Clinton law suite with a court date in October. She did state the docket number but I did not catch it. he was up-set and felt that whatever it was, was a big deal. Perhaps some of you would know how to find out what its about? thank you!
Annie Oakley clearly understands this. Makes one wonder what's her point? Is she now a republican? She knows she can't possibly paint Obama as unelectable vs. her electability. She has a mack truck full of dirt that will be exploited by the republicans.
According to this, Clinton picks up a net of 5 delegates from this portion of the allocation. Assuming a similar pickup in Indiana, what is the expectation for NC? Sounds to me like Clinton just cannot put enough of a dent into the Obama lead.
thanks for a very thorough and interesting analysis of the PA race...
Even on a good day, when all the delegates are assigned for Pennsylvania, the best she can hope for is an 88-70 split. This is her best chance to cut Obama's lead and it won't be enough. http://thedeadguy.com/2008/the-math-of-delegates
WOW!! that's all i can say about that...
I come from small town America, in Southwestern Michigan. Let me tell you, my fellow citizens are every bit as "bitter" as Senator Obama described. We haven't recovered from Whirlpool pulling out 2 manufacturing plants in 1987, although they maintain headquarters here. Only a casino, recently opened, has brought any jobs close to the numbers that were lost. We tend to blame the lack of jobs and other problems on "getting away from God". We don't look to the federal government for help, we know that will get us nothing. News flash for Senator Clinton: people here hate your guts. I have to admit, judging from your behavior on the campaign trail, I don't blame them. The senator seems to be in the campaign only to glorify herself and her husband, not to actually help her county and it's citizens. We would like someone who will actually bring jobs, and will do something about healthcare. We want gasoline prices to come down, and I do believe we would go to alternative fuels, if we actually had some to choose from. Don't put us down, do not patronize us. Pay attention to us, and earn our loyalty.
It would have been useful if you totaled up your predictions and gave a final tally at the end of the district breakdowns. Thanks for the district info, it was very interesting and I haven't seen this breakdown done for PA elsewhere online. Thanks!
Cue the Clinton supporters pouting, stomping their feet and crying "It's Not FAIR!" You know if some actually had "35 years of experience" she would know how the primary elections work. The fact that she's getting her clock cleaned by a relative newcomer just shows what a horrible manager she is. Thank the heavens she's losing so badly she has no more chance than Kusinic to be the nominee. We cannot afford this "Bush league" degree of incompetence in the White house.
I seem to recall that the Clinton campaign failed to file their full slate of delegates by the filing deadline, (back around Super Tuesday), and ended up being 10 delegates short of a full slate. I'm not bitter enough to know whether this will make a difference.
I happen to think that much like myself, most of us here in PA will be voting for the one candidate WITH experience and WITHOUT the baggage yet to even come out on Mr. Obomba - Rezko? Ayers? and many many more. God Forbid he is the nominee as the Republicans will have an open fest Field day on him. With Senator Clinton, we know she is a Champion on Healthcare, education, Foreign Policy and all else mattering to PA voters. Sorry Guys, but sticking with "the sparkle man" will not get you a President. JoeyLee*
Interesting and thorough analysis, thank you. Adding up your figures this would give Hillary a relative gain of 3 delegates from the PA districts (=53 HC : 50 BO). I therefore calculate that even if she wins by 20% in PA, HC will need to win the all the rest by 30% (inc NC) to catch BO, assuming a 50:50 split of uncommited SDs. Even if the remaining uncommited SDs choose HC by 2:1, she still needs to win all post PA states by 20% or 28% if NC is a tie. Also: After PA, the most important state is NC with 115 delegates. Now NC is currently polling around 5:3 in favour of BO. However even assuming HC ties in NC, she would need a win by 38% of all the rest after PA to catch BO NOTE: The above assumes that the remaining uncommited super delegates split 50:50 Here's the maths: Given 103 District Level delegates out of 158 PA pledged delegates leaves an additional 55 to be accounted for (of which 35 At-large and 20 Pledged Leaders) Now for sake of argument, let's see what happens if Hillary were to win those in PA by 20%, thus the 55 would follow a split 60:40 = 33:22 Adding the District delegates gives a PA total of HC=86 to BO=77, a relative gain of 9 for HC. (For reference: Based on RealClearPolitics.com's current poll average of 48.2[HC] : 40.5[BO] equvalent to 8.7% of candidates voting for HC or BO would predict a lead for HC of 14 seats if district voting patterns are not taken into account) To date, BO has 1642 and HC has 1507. After PA this would become BO = 1714 and HC = 1593, a difference of 121 delegates. After PA, there are 408 pledged seats remaining, so HC needs to win remaining delegates by a margin of 121/408 = 30% to catch BO. All the above assumed SDs would split 50:50. However, there are 124 as yet uncommited. If they choose HC by 2:1 that would give HC 83 and BO 41 SDs. HC would still need to win all states after PA by 20% , or by 28% if NC is just a tie. For completeness, BO would need 60% or HC 90% of the rest to gain an overall 2024 majority which is highly unlikely. Note: all the above are based on discounting MI & FL. If however HC were handed a +20% margin in both states, she would still need 23% wins after PA if NC is a tie. Disclaimer: this is for information only. It may be incorrect and is based on various assumptions (as indicated) that may not occur.
tjs, in re the law suit that you alluded to, do a Google search on BC304174. You might find a hint there.
Bill Clinton was in Jim Thorpe, PA on Sunday, April 13th and gave a nice speech. However, he did not address any of the problems our region faces. There was no question and answer period. It was a staged event by the Carbon County Democratic Party ( who support Hillary). I do not want another President who is a part of the political machine. The Clintons are part of the political machine that has caused our dissatisfaction with Washington. I AM BITTER about the poor economy and lack of jobs in Carbon County, PA. I AM ANGRY about home heating oil at $3.499. I AM OUTRAGED that Hillary voted FOR the war in Iraq. I voted for Senator Casey because he is not part of the Washington establishment and I will vote for Senator Obama for the same reason. Also, Senator Obama has real concern for my views. He is the better candidate. He will be the next President. Please vote for him.
I am still at a loss to understand the defensiveness with which some people seem to have greeted Barak Obama's remark concerning the rural voters of Pennsylvania. That Senators Clinton and Obama may do well in the rural areas of the Keystone State indicates that there are plenty of people there who will respond to a progressive, humane message. But we cannot forget that Rick Santorum has a very strong following in rural Pennsylvania as well. People who are attracted to him and to his message of religious intolerance remain opaque to me. Perhaps they are not bitter, but the defensiveness of their response to Senator Obama's remark suggests otherwise. It is time that the Dems get this dumb issue behind them and use the remaining time for constructive debate on the real problems and OPPORTUNITIES ahead.
What Jimmy's Attack Rabbit said. She was short 10%, not 10 delegates, even after the governor pulled a weather emergency excuse out of his hat and extended the petition filing deadline several days. This shows an amazing lack of management competence. So will this affect number of delegates? Probably not, because she won't win ALL the delegates in any particular district.
Americans do not want to be lied to by their leaders and politicians. We teach our children not to lie and steal so why would we want to elect a lying Politician into the Whitehouse, someone we cannot trust and something we have had enough of the last 8 years. Clinton's latest story of learning to shoot "ducks" behind the cottage her grandfather built, sounds and smells a lot like "Bosnian Sniper Fire". Then we have Bill stating "falsely" the following -- B. Clinton "[s]ays at campaign railly in Corydon, Indiana that throughout seven stops in North Carolina, 'Everywhere I go there are all these people with signs, saying I'm not bitter - I'm not bitter.' ABC's Sarah Amos says his comments were well-received but 'not entirely accurate.' For instance, she says there were no signs at his rallies saying 'I'm not bitter,' as he claimed. " This Political couple has no Shame! America, we have to ask ourselves, which is more eggrecious, a politician telling us the hard truth, the things we may not want to hear but need to hear OR a politician telling us a Fantasy/Lie, like the Bosnia Sniper Fire fabrication and "duck" shooting PERFORMANCE, things we did not need to hear because not Truth, and in reality is a betrayal of the public trust and a deeply flawed Character Issue. America needs and will demand a President we can trust -- who is basically honest, forthright, and Authentic which we have in the body of Barack Obama! However, in light of the current fire storm and questionning and psychoanalyzing about the "bitterness" of small town America, maybe Obama has done us some good and we can finally bring or shed some light on just how bitter (or not) we really are and better yet -- the "Root Cause"! In regards to Obama's Cling to guns comment, "cling" came after the word religion in "people cling to religion and guns" -- the guns got looped together with the religion, I am sure, due to brain Fog after months and hours of non-stop campaigning. I say this because I too cling to my religion for salvation and strength. Nothing wrong with clinging. I believe that If he was a little more clear headed he might of said instead something like cling to religion and turn to guns as a normal outlet from the frustration and hopelessness found in small-town America.
Republicans who registered democrat to vote in PA should vote for OBAMA because we know Clinton will not back out and when she gets down ----she gets DOWN and DIRTY. She can really bloody OBAMA up and serve him up to us for an easy slaughter in the general election. So come on Republicans, vote against Clinton and make her go crazy. If you want to win easy in the fall, think this through ---if you vote for Clinton in PA she will win big and the battle will be behind the scenes with the Super delgates, but if you vote for Obama she will fight (with those fun throw the sink at him tactics) in the public battleground. So let's see those fireworks---vote Obama and rocket the Republicans straight to the White House!! This operation chaos is fun and our man won't even have to dirty his hands much!!!!! Go OBAMA and laugh all the way!
I'm a 60 year-old female who is very bitter about what is happening is this country. I'm bitter at politicians like the Clinton's who will promise anything to get a vote, but will not deliver! Look at the jobs that have been lost in NY. I'm bitter at the speech Hillary Clinton made while visiting New Delhi...quote, "THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN LEGISLATE AGAINST REALITY. OUTSOURCING WILL CONTINUE...WE ARE NOT AGAINST OUTSOURCING, WE ARE NOT IN FAVOR OF PUTTING UP FENCES." I'm bitter at the Clintons for misleading people while they make millions off their associates and business friends in Middle Easst, India, China, Canada and South American. I don't want Hillary Bush Clinton in the Whitehouse ever again! I want to see jobs...reasonable food and gas prices...and someone to represent the people of American...not people who want to become richer while robbing the people who work hard in this country. Hell yes, I'm bitter, vote for change before it's too late for all Americans.
jjason won't vote for Hillary because he/she claims that she is part of a Political Machine and Nobama isn't. THAT is the funniest joke I have read ALL DAY! Barack Nobama is Frankensein's Monster, created in the Richard Daley Crook County Democratic Machine Labs. His mentor Is the President of the Illinois Senate, Jones Jr. who managed to place Nonama's name at the top of all pertinate legislation that was created by other IL Senators and then taken away from them so that he could create his very own President. His own words were that he would be sure to create the first Black President before he dies. Jones is a racist, as is Nobama, his Pastor Wright and his wife Michelle. Anyone not familiar with the Daley Political Machine doesn't remember that they were the ones who put JFK into the White House by stuffing the ballot boxes in Illinois, thus stealing the Presidency of the truely elected man, Richard Nixon. A lesson well learned by Karl Rove and used to do the same 40 years later in Florida. This event is what ultimately gave birth to the Watergate scandal because Nixon was so paranoid that the Democrats would again steal the Presidency from him. Yes indeed jjason, if you vote for Nobama you will have voted for the crookedest creation since Tammany Hall died away.
in paragraph 10, it is stated that there are 5 districts with likely 3-2 splits, but i believe this should read 6 districts (districts 3,4,11,12,15,18).
Joey Lee and tjs please visit the website http://www.hillaryproject.com/ you can find the court case that's coming up in Oct that the media is hiding from this election campaign about hillary. It's very distrubing to say the least. I think all the hillary supporters should really do their research before voting and who quickly take up the opportunity to attack Obama. I'm starting to believe most of her supporters and votes are race based. I say this because it BLOWS my mind to see how she has won Ohio and is leading in PA. The american voters, Old voters, small town voters, hispanics and WHITE WOMEN, you all have been hoodwinked and bambeboozled. White women wake up!! I too would love to see a woman in office BUT NOT HILLARY!! Please be patience for the right woman to lead this country!! Please check out the link above.
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