CQPolitics

    Mr. President, a new intelligence report says that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program four years ago and that it remains frozen.

    Are you still convinced that Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb? And do the new findings take the military option that you've talked about off the table?

    Here's what we know.

    We know that they're still trying to learn how to enrich uranium.

    We know that enriching uranium is an important step in a country whose desire it was to develop a weapon. We know they had a program. We know the program was halted.

    I think it is very important for the international community to recognize the fact that if Iran were to develop the knowledge that they could transfer to a clandestine program, it would create a danger of the world.

    And so, I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program.

    And the reason why it's a warning signal is is that they could restart it. And the thing that would make a restarted program effective and dangerous is the ability to enrich uranium, the knowledge of which could be passed on to a hidden program.

    And so, it's -- to me, the NIE provides an opportunity for us to rally the international community or continue to rally the community to pressure the Iranian regime to suspend its program.

    You know the NIE also said that such pressure was effective. And that's what our government has been explaining to, you know, our other partners in keeping the international pressure on Iran. The best diplomacy -- effective diplomacy is one in which all options are on the table.

    Mr. President, Iraq's WMD turned out not to be there.

    And now Iran halted its nuclear program in 2003. Are you concerned that the United States is losing credibility in the world and now may be scene as the boy who tried -- who called wolf?

    Actually, I am -- you know, I want to compliment the intelligence community for their good work.

    Right after the failure of intelligence in Iraq, we reformed the intel community so that there was a lot of serious considerations of NIEs in a way that would give us confidence. And here's a -- I think, a very important product that is a result of the reforms we've put in place.

    As a matter of fact, the American people should have confidence that the reforms are working and that this work on the intel community's important work.

    Yes, it was -- how -- people said, "Well, why is it that you can't get exact knowledge quicker?"

    Well, the answer is because we're dealing with a regime that is not very transparent. And, frankly, we haven't had a very good presence in Iran since 1979.

    And that's why I instructed the intel community to beef up its intelligence on Iran, so we could have a better sense for what they're thinking and what they're doing.

    And this product is -- is a result of intelligence reform and, more importantly, the good hard work of our intelligence community.

    One of the reasons why this is out in the public arena, is because I wanted -- and our administration believe -- that, one, it was important for people to know the facts as we see them.

    Secondly, that, you know, members of my administration have been very clear about their weapons program earlier this year.

    And, therefore, it's important for the American people to see that there's been a -- you know, a reevaluation of the -- of the Iranian issue.

    Mr. President, thank you. I'd like to follow on that.

    When you talked about Iraq, you and others in the administration talked about a mushroom cloud. Then there were no WMD in Iraq.

    When it came to Iran, you said in October -- on October 17th, you warned about the prospect of World War III, when, months before you made that statement, this intelligence about them suspending their weapons program back in '03 had already come to light to this administration.

    So can't you be accused of hyping this threat? And don't you worry that that undermines U.S. credibility?

    I don't want to contradict an august reporter such as yourself, but I was made aware of the NIE last week.

    In August, I think it was John -- Mike McConnell came in and said, "We have some new information." He didn't tell me what the information was. He did tell me it was going to take a while to analyze.

    Why would you take time to analyze new information?

    One, you want to make sure it's not disinformation. You want to make sure the piece of intelligence you have is real.

    And secondly, they want to make sure they understand the intelligence they gathered. If they think it's real, then what does it mean?

    And it wasn't until last week that I was briefed on the NIE that is now public.

    And the second part of your question has to do this: Look, Iran was dangerous. Iran is dangerous. And Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.

    The NIE says that Iran had a hidden -- you know, a covert nuclear weapons program. That's what it said.

    What's to say they couldn't start another covert nuclear weapons program?

    And the best way to ensure that -- that they're -- that the world is peaceful in the future, is for the international community to continue to work together to say to the Iranians, you know, "We're going to isolate you. However, there is a better way forward for the Iranians."

    Now, in 2003, the Iranian government began to come to the table in discussions with the E.U.-3, facilitated by the United States. As we said to the E.U.-3, "We'll support your efforts to say to the Iranians, 'You have a choice to make: You can continue to do policy that will isolate you, or there's a better way forward.'"

    And so, that was the sticks-and-carrots approach. You might remember, the United States said at that point in time, "We'll put the WTO on the table for consideration, or we'll help you with spare parts for your airplanes."

    It was all an attempt to take advantage of what we thought was a more open-minded Iranian regime at the time -- a willingness of this regime to talk about a way forward.

    And then the Iranians had elections. And Ahmadinejad announced that -- to the IAEA that he was going to -- this is after, by the way, the Iranians had suspended their enrichment program. He said, "We're going to stop the suspension. We'll start up the program again."

    And that's where we are today.

    My point is is that there is a better way forward for the Iranians. There has been a moment during my presidency in which diplomacy provided a way forward for the Iranians. And, you know, our hope is we can get back on that path again.

    But what is certain is that if Iran ever had the knowledge to develop a nuclear weapon and they passed that knowledge on to a covert program, which at one time in their history has existed, the world would be more dangerous. And now's the time for the international community to work together.

    President, thank you.

    Just to follow, I understand what you're saying about when you were informed about the NIE.

    Are you saying at no point while the rhetoric was escalating, as World War III was making it into conversation -- at no point, nobody from your intelligence team or your administration was saying, "Maybe you want to back it down a little bit"?

    No -- I've never -- nobody ever told me that.

    Having said -- having -- having laid that out, I still feel strongly that Iran's a danger. Nothings changed in this NIE that says, "OK, why don't we just stop worrying about it?" Quite the contrary.

    I think the NIE makes it clear that Iran needs to be taken seriously as a threat to peace.

    My opinion hasn't changed. And I just explained that if you want to avoid a really problematic situation in the Middle East, now is the time to continue to work together. That's our message to our allies, and it's an important message for them to hear.

    And here's the reason why: In order for a nation to develop a nuclear weapons program, they must have the materials from which to make a bomb, the know-how on how to take that material and make it explode, and a delivery system.

    Now, the Iranians -- the most difficult aspect of developing, you know, a weapons program, or, as some would say, the long pole in the tent, is enriching uranium.

    This is a nation -- Iran is a nation that is testing ballistic missiles. And it is a nation that is trying to enrich uranium.

    The NIE says this is a country that had a covert nuclear weapons program, which, by the way, they have failed to disclose even today. They have never admitted the program existed in the first place.

    The danger is is that they can enrich, play like they got a civilian program -- or have a civilian program or claim it's a civilian program -- and pass the knowledge to a covert military program.

    And then the danger is is that some point in the future, they show up with a weapon. And my comments are, now is the time to work together to prevent that scenario from taking place.

    It's in our interest.

    Mr. Bush, how can you nothing has changed?

    You may see it this way, but the rest of the world is going to see the lead as the fact that nuclear weapons program was halted in 2003.

    Right.

    When you first saw this, weren't you angry?

    You didn't know about Syria. In 2005, you had the same assessment with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons. And now, quite the opposite.

    How can you possibly think the rest of the world is going to continue, to the degree it did, to rally around you and your intelligence?

    Because many in the world understand that if Iran developed a nuclear weapon, the world would be a very dangerous place.

    Secondly, many in the world are going to take heart in noting that it's diplomatic pressure that caused them to change their mind. And plenty of people understand that if they learn how to enrich, that knowledge can be transferred to a weapons program if Iran so chooses.

    And I think this is a -- it's a -- to me it is a way for us to continue to rally our partners. It's why I'm working the phones, Condi Rice is working the phones, all of us are calling our partners. And I appreciate many of the comments that have come out of the capitals.

    One thing is for certain: The NIE talks about how a carrot-and- stick approach can work. And this is heartening news to people who believe that, on the one hand, we should exert pressure, and on the other hand we should provide the Iranians a way forward.

    And it was working until...

    (CROSSTALK)

    ... until -- until Ahmadinejad came in.

    And our hope is that the Iranians will get diplomacy back on track.

    Yes, ma'am?

    Why should you trust this intelligence since it's different from 2005? Why should you trust this any more?

    Well, I -- I'm -- without getting into sources and methods, I believe that the intelligence community has made a great discovery, and they've analyzed the discovery, and it's now a part of our government policy.

    Toby, I apologize for getting immediately to the TV people. I should have -- it's bad protocol. I should have called on you.

(Later in the press briefing)

    The clarification is, are you saying that this NIE will not lead to a change in U.S. policy toward Iran or a shift in focus?

    I'm saying that I believed before the NIE that Iran was dangerous and I believe after the NIE that Iran is dangerous. And I believe now is the time for the world to do the hard work necessary to convince the Iranians there is a better way forward.

    And I say hard work, here's why it's hard.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH