polling

Analysis: Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.
It’s still too early to read too much into recent polling shifts

National surveys of President Donald Trump’s approval and the generic ballot appear to be dramatically changing, but the truth is more complicated than that, Rothenberg writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved of his performance.

Corker Won’t Campaign Against Democratic Ex-Governor Who Wants to Succeed Him
Retiring Republican has contributed to Blackburn, but has long relationship with Bredesen

Sen. Bob Corker thinks the Democratic candidate is fairly well ahead in the race to succeed him. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen has significant crossover appeal, but just how much may depend on whether Tennessee voters think control of the Senate is at stake.

That is the view of the retiring senator who Bredesen and Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn are seeking to replace, who thinks the Democrat might be ahead by six points today.

Republican Rocky Chavez Tops Poll for Issa’s Seat
Democrat Doug Applegate, who narrowly lost to Issa in 2016, is second

Democrat Mike Levin finished third in a poll in the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in California’s 49th District. (Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call).

A new public poll shows Republican state Assemblyman Rocky Chavez leading the race to replace outgoing Rep. Darrell Issa in California’s 49th District.

Chavez leads the race with 16 percent, followed by Democrat Doug Applegate, who was favored by 12 percent of those surveyed in the San Diego Union Tribune/10 News poll.

Internal Poll Shows No Front-Runner in Race for Royce’s Seat
Possibility that two Republicans or two Democrats could emerge from June primary

Andy Thorburn's campaign released an internal poll showing him ahead of fellow Democrats including Sam Jammal, pictured, in California's 39th District. (D.A. Banks/CQ Roll Call file photo).

An internal poll from Democratic candidate Andy Thorburn’s campaign shows the race to replace Rep. Ed Royce in California’s 39th District is still wide open, with more than a third of those polled undecided.

Democrats have concerns that their four candidates could split the vote and allow two Republicans advance to the general election. California’s primary is June 5th and the two candidates with the most votes advance to November regardless of party.

Democratic Poll Shows Competitive Race in California’s 10th District
Michael Eggman is challenging GOP incumbent Jeff Denham for third time

Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif., is a Democratic target this year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrat Michael Eggman is arguing that he is best positioned to take on Republican Rep. Jeff Denham in California’s 10th District, and his campaign has released an internal poll showing a potentially competitive race between Eggman and the four-term congressman.

But Democratic investor Josh Harder, who is also running, released new polling to make the case that he would be the strongest challenger.

Opinion: If the Generic Ballot Is a Midterms Canary, It’s a Cagey One
Context is key when it comes to the popular poll question

With some caveats, the generic ballot test gives us an idea where the congressional midterm elections could be headed, Winston writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

For many in the political community, the generic ballot test, a standardized question in most national polls, has become the electoral equivalent of the canary in the coal mine — a harbinger of things to come in November. It’s an important tool to gauge how each party is doing at any given point in time, as it gives us a fairly good, though not infallible, idea of which party is heading to the polls with the wind at its back.

This election cycle, there has been even more focus than usual on the generic ballot, with months of grim numbers for Republicans until recently, when national polls have shown a more positive trend for the GOP.

Cramer Ahead of Heitkamp in NRSC North Dakota Poll
GOP congressman leads Democratic incumbent by 5 points in Senate race

North Dakota Rep. Kevin Cramer is challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp this fall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer, who recently entered the North Dakota Senate race, leads Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp by 5 points, according to a poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and shared first with Roll Call. 

First elected in 2012, Heitkamp is among the more vulnerable Democratic senators up for re-election this fall, especially considering President Donald Trump won North Dakota by 36 points in 2016. 

House GOP to Whip Goodlatte Immigration Bill Wednesday
If vote count is positive, leadership intends to bring measure to the floor

Virginia Rep. Robert W. Goodlatte’s immigration bill would go to the House floor soon if Wednesday’s whip check is successful. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Do House Republicans have an immigration bill they could pass before the March 5 expiration of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that would get President Donald Trump’s signature?

The answer to that question will become clear Wednesday as the GOP whip team conducts a formal check on the only House measure that has Trump’s backing. If the whip count is favorable, GOP leaders will bring it to the floor, a House leadership aide confirmed. 

When Is a Whip a Whip? House Democrats Might Not Be Best Ones to Ask Right Now
Mixed messages come from party critical of Trump for being inconsistent

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she and her leadership team would not whip the vote on the budget deal. Then they started whipping the vote. Sort of. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

House Democratic leaders have spent the past 48 hours opposing the bipartisan budget deal but saying they’re not whipping it, and then kind of, sort of whipping it.

The inconsistent messaging is all the more notable given Democrats’ frequent criticism of President Donald Trump for wavering in his own policy positions.

Podcast: Can The Trump Show Win Over a New Audience?
Political Theater, Episode 4

President Donald Trump speaks during the joint session of Congress to deliver his State of the Union Address in the Capitol on Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

As President Donald Trump starts his second year in office, he will need Democrats to secure meaningful legislative accomplishments. His first official State of the Union address was a prime-time, nationally televised opportunity to reach across the aisle.

Ben Terris, national political reporter at The Washington Post, discusses with Roll Call whether Trump was able to use his State of the Union to build congressional coalitions, and whether the speech will help or hurt the legislative agenda.