Bruce Poliquin

Republicans Need a Cold Compress With Less Than One Month to Go
Presidential pain still plagues vulnerable incumbents ahead of the midterms

President Donald Trump may turn out Democrats better than any Democrat could. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

ANALYSIS — Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.

From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and severity. And Republicans’ ability to alleviate them will determine control of the House and Senate in the 116th Congress.

The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents: Blum’s Still the One
Erik Paulsen and Bruce Poliquin make the list for first time this cycle

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum remains the most vulnerable incumbent. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

With one month to go until Election Day, two new names are on our latest ranking of the most vulnerable House incumbents, but once again, the list remains all-Republican.

Despite widely over-performing President Donald Trump in his district in 2016, Minnesota Rep. Erik Paulsen looks to be in tougher shape this year in a seat Hillary Clinton comfortably carried. He has company — four of the most vulnerable incumbents are running in Clinton districts, with Colorado’s Mike Coffman and Kansas’ Kevin Yoder moving up on the list. 

It’s Baaaccck! Health Care Law Again Front and Center in Midterms
As voters worry about health care, Dems flip the pre-existing script

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., speaks at a July 19 press conference in the Capitol on pre-existing conditions. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Missouri Democratic senator Claire McCaskill is taking an approach in her fight for re-election that would have been unthinkable in her race six years ago — she’s defending the health care law.

The two-term, red-state senator has attacked her opponent, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, for joining a suit brought by conservative state officials seeking to overturn the law and has rebuked the Trump administration for undercutting its protections.

Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night
Close races, voting schemes and mail-in ballots could all complicate calling control of Congress on Nov. 6

The race for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s Mississippi seat lists among the complicating factors that might impede calling control of the Senate on Nov. 6, Gonzales writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

After two years of campaigning in the latest most consequential election of our lifetimes, election night could be a huge letdown. The disappointment is not about which party prevails Nov. 6, but the reality that a combination of close races and West Coast contests could prevent enough races from being called to determine majorities in Congress until days later.

In the Senate, more than 10 races could finish within single digits, and a handful of those contests look like they’re neck and neck. The close margins could make it difficult for media outlets to project a winner on election night. Since Republicans have just a two-seat majority, every Senate race matters, so anything left uncalled could make it difficult to figure out who will control the chamber next year.

GOP Super PAC Continues Attacks on Maine’s Jared Golden
CLF has reserved $3.1 million in 2nd District to defend Poliquin

(Screenshot/Youtube/Congressional Leadership Fund)

A Republican super PAC tied to House leadership is launching its fourth ad against Maine Democrat Jared Golden on Friday.

The fight to hold on to the 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin is running for a third term, is a top priority for Republicans. Congressional Leadership Fund has now reserved $3.1 million for the seat, among the most it’s reserved in competitive districts around the country. 

Liberal Health Care Group Launches Seven-Figure Campaign
Will target vulnerable Republicans in more than 20 districts

Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., is one of the Republicans being targeted by a liberal advocacy group two months out from the midterms. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A liberal health care group is launching a seven-figure campaign targeting more than 20 congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections.

Health Care Voter announced the campaign on Thursday and said it will also release a 50-state voter guide for every candidate for federal office.

Chamber Defends GOP House Members in New Round of Ads
Business trade group is launching ads in four more House races

Reps. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, left, and French Hill, R-Ark., were both highlighted in new TV ads from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is hitting the airwaves in four additional House races to defend Republicans in competitive contests.

The television ads, shared first with Roll Call, are part of a slate of positive issue spots boosting GOP incumbents in races from Maine to California. 

Pro-Trump Outside Groups Are Investing in These 12 Races
America First is spending in 10 House districts and 2 Senate races

A pro-Trump super PAC has committed to spending $1 million in Maine’s 2nd District to help GOP  Rep. Bruce Poliquin. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Two outside groups that back President Donald Trump, America First Action and America First Policies, will collectively spend $12.5 million on the midterms, mostly in House districts that the president carried in 2016 and Republicans are either trying to hold or pick up in the fall. 

The total spending was reported earlier this week, but America First Action announced Friday the break down of exactly how much money the super PAC is committed to each House district. The spending commitments, which could include TV, radio, digital or direct mail advertising, are as follows: 

Poliquin Again Amps Up Mailings Ahead of Election Deadline
Critics say it is an abuse of taxpayer dollars

Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, is being accused of flooding his district with franked mail to improve his re-election prospects. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin is flooding Maine's 2nd District with congressional mailers.

Poliquin’s mailers highlight his work on the GOP tax legislation passed last year, the opioid crisis, and increasing consequences for sexual harassment on Capitol Hill, the Portland Press Herald reported.

Poliquin and Golden Neck and Neck in Democrat’s Poll of Maine’s 2nd District
Pine Tree State is using ranked-choice voting this fall

Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin faces Democrat Jared Golden in his bid for a third term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Maine Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin and Democratic challenger Jared Golden were neck and neck in the latter’s first survey of the general election in the 2nd District, with Golden’s position strengthening under a simulation of the state’s new ranked-choice voting system.

Poliquin led Golden 40 percent to 39 percent in the initial matchup, according to a polling memo obtained first by Roll Call.