Bruce Poliquin

Analysis: Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats
If Trump keeps bleeding suburban support, GOP House majority could be at risk

Retiring Michigan Rep. Dave Trott’s 11th District is overwhelmingly suburban, offering Democrats a pickup opportunity. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

If elections and national surveys over the past year have shown us anything, it is that suburban voters could well be the key to the 2018 midterm House elections.

Turnout among minority voters and younger voters could affect the result in a district here or there, but an increase in suburban turnout or a substantial shift by suburban voters (especially suburban women) from the Republicans to the Democrats could have a much broader impact on the fight for control of the House.

At the Races: Who Says You Can’t Go Home?
Our weekly newsletter on congressional campaigns


This week ... Three more lawmakers retired, GOP women looked to boost their ranks and @IronStache made it to the House.

American Action Network Pushing Tax Law in New Digital Ads
Republicans trying to make overhaul central message ahead of November

Minnesota Rep. Jason Lewis is among 20 Republican beneficiaries of a digital ad campaign by the American Action Network. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With Republicans focusing on the economy as their strongest message for the midterms, an issue advocacy group with close ties to House GOP leadership is launching a million-dollar digital ad campaign to tout the Republican tax law. 

American Action Network’s latest digital push, shared first with Roll Call, will run in the districts of 20 Republican lawmakers who voted for the GOP tax plan in December, including members of leadership and others who are more vulnerable this year. 

Northeastern Lawmakers Unite Against Trump Offshore Drilling Plan
Republicans and Democrats from region join Florida and West Coast colleagues blasting plan

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, penned a joint letter on Monday to resist the Trump administration’s offshore drilling plans off their state’s coast. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Lawmakers in the Northeast united across party lines on Monday to hazard against President Donald Trump’s offshore drilling plan to re-open more than 90 percent of the U.S. coastline to oil and gas companies.

Roughly 94 percent of the coastline, including the entire Atlantic and Pacific coasts, remains off limits to oil and gas drilling. But Trump’s Interior Department revealed a five-year plan proposing 47 potential lease sales to energy companies through 2024, including two in the North Atlantic region from Maine to New Jersey.

House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might
Political wave elections create their own race dynamics

Rep. Sue W. Kelly lost her re-election bid in 2006 even though she appeared safe, having won two years earlier with 67 percent of the vote in a New York district carried by President George W. Bush. The result is a reminder that wave elections produce their own dynamics. (CQ Roll Call file photo)

Responses to the “generic ballot” poll question suggest a partisan electoral wave is building. But the fight for control of the House isn’t a single national election. It will be fought district by district, and national Democrats face challenges on the ground even with the generic ballot favoring them.

In Michigan, according to America Votes 2007-2008, the statewide congressional vote shifted noticeably from 2004 to 2006 — from 49 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic to 53 percent Democratic and 44 percent Republican — but that popular vote surge for the Democrats didn’t translate to a shift of even a single House seat.

Podcast: Sexual Harassment in Congress — More to Come
The Big Story, Episode 80

California Rep. Jackie Speier introduced legislation last week to address and prevent sexual harassment on Capitol Hill. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Show Notes:

DCCC Launches Digital Ads Over GOP Tax Vote
Seven Republicans who voted against the tax plan are also targeted

Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock speaks with reporters as she leaves the Capitol after voting for the GOP’s tax plan Thursday. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Seizing on the House’s passage of the Republican tax plan Thursday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching digital ads in more than 40 GOP-held districts, including against Republicans who voted against the plan.

The ads, provided first to Roll Call, will run on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. The committee is also rolling out a website,, that allows voters to submit their own video testimonials about the tax plan. The site will be promoted in Google search ads.

Speier and Gillibrand Introduce Harassment Transparency Legislation
Bill would disclose involved offices and make members pay for settlements

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, right, and California Rep. Jackie Speier hold a news conference Wednesday to introduce legislation aimed at addressing and preventing sexual harassment for Capitol Hill staff. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

A bipartisan group of lawmakers joined Rep. Jackie Speier to introduce new legislation that takes aim at sexual harassment in Congress.

“For all intents and purposes, a staffer in the Capitol is powerless and gagged,” Speier, a California Democrat, said Wednesday at the beginning of a news conference in the Capitol Visitor Center. Harassers are often allowed to walk away to prey on others, she said.

Mandatory by January: Sexual Harassment Training for Senators and Staff
House lawmakers have introduced similar legislation

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., sponsored a resolution that requires senators and their staffs to complete sexual harassment training by early January. Here, staffers line up at a committee hearing. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Senators and their staffs have until early January to complete sexual harassment training, made mandatory by a resolution the Senate adopted unanimously Thursday.

The resolution comes after recent scrutiny of how Congress handles sexual harassment in its offices. Nearly 1,500 former staffers have signed a letter to congressional leadership released Thursday saying the processes are “inadequate and need reform.”

What to Watch as 2018 Primaries Inch Closer
It’s never too early: first contests take place in March

Spread out over the first nine months of the year, primaries will set the stage for the 2018 midterm elections in November. These contests will be the first test of each party’s ability to field strong candidates in key pickup opportunities and fend off intraparty challenges. 

The first elections will take place in March. Here’s what to watch for as the primaries pick up. And click here for Roll Call's comprehensive guide to every 2018 election from start to finish.