Inside Elections

Podcast: California’s Top Two Primary Looms Over House Democrats
Roll Call Decoder, Episode 11

Harley Rouda, Democrat running for California’s 48th District, speaks during his campaign rally in Laguna Beach, Calif., on Sunday, May 20, 2018. California is holding its primary election on June 5. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrats have a handful of opportunities to takeover House seats in California, but the abundance of candidates and state’s top two primary system are complicating the party's efforts in a critical state for the majority. Roll Call elections analyst Nathan Gonzales and Roll Call political reporter Bridget Bowman look back at when the system was installed and ahead to the June 5 primaries and how Democrats are trying to avoid an electoral catastrophe.

Show Notes:

Podcast: ​In Search of the Ideal Political Map
Roll Call Decoder, Episode 3

Shirley Connuck, right, of Falls Church, Va., holds up a sign representing Texas’ 18th District, as the Supreme Court hears a case on possible partisan gerrymandering by state legislatures on October 3, 2017. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Courts are weighing in as never before on whether gerrymandering can be too political. If red and blue can no longer constitutionally dominate the mapmakers’ work, what are they to do? As Roll Call election analyst Nathan Gonzales explains, it’s very difficult to draw districts that are at once competitive, compact and fair to minority voters. And the 2018 primaries are about to get started.

 Show Notes:

Inside Elections: 2018 May Be Tough for Senate Republicans
 

Inside Elections: What You Need to Know About the Gubernatorial Landscape
 

Former DCCC Exec Says “Signs” Were There for Trump

House Republicans Shouldn’t Get Too Comfortable in Majority
Number of competitive races could balloon before Election Day

More Republican seats could become legitimate takeover targets for Democrats in reaction to a polarizing and unpopular President Donald Trump, Nathan L. Gonzales writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Republican gerrymandering has put the House majority out of reach for Democrats, we’re told. But even though the initial playing field of competitive races is probably too small for the GOP to fall into the minority, Republicans shouldn’t get too comfortable. The playing field could expand dramatically over the next 20 months.

Inside Elections (formerly The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report) rated 43 House races as competitive in its initial 2018 ratings. That total includes 28 seats held by Republicans and 15 seats held by Democrats.

Initial 2018 Senate Ratings Map Filled With GOP Opportunities
Democrats defending 25 seats next year, compared to just 8 for Republicans

While Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, left, is heavily favored for re-election, Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana are facing toss-up contests, according to the first 2018 race ratings by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Ready or not, here come the 2018 midterm elections. Resistance is futile.

Even if you don’t want to acknowledge them, aspiring candidates are posturing for statewide bids and vulnerable incumbents are casting votes with re-election in mind.